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Consistency and stability analysis of models of a monetary growth imperative

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  • Richters, Oliver
  • Siemoneit, Andreas

Abstract

Is fostering economic growth ‘only’ a question of political will or ‘unavoidable’ to maintain economic stability? It is disputed whether such a ‘growth imperative’ is located within the current monetary system, creating conflicts with sustainability. To examine the claim that compound interest compels economies to grow, we present five post-Keynesian models and show how to perform a stability analysis in the parameter space. A stationary state with zero net saving and investment can be reached with positive interest rates, if the parameter ‘consumption out of wealth’ is above a threshold that rises with the interest rate. The other claim that retained profits from the interest revenues of banks create an imperative is based on circuitist models that we consider refutable. Their accounting is inconsistent, and a modeling assumption central for a growth imperative is not underpinned theoretically: Bank's equity capital has to increase even if debt does not. This is a discrepancy between the authors' intentions in their texts and their actual models. We conclude that a monetary system based on interest-bearing debt-money with private banks does not lead to an ‘inherent’ growth imperative. If the stationary state is unstable, it is caused by agents' decisions, not by structural inevitableness.

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  • Richters, Oliver & Siemoneit, Andreas, 2017. "Consistency and stability analysis of models of a monetary growth imperative," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 114-125.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:136:y:2017:i:c:p:114-125
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.01.017
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    3. Barrett, Adam B., 2018. "Stability of Zero-growth Economics Analysed with a Minskyan Model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 228-239.
    4. Richters, Oliver & Siemoneit, Andreas, 2017. "How imperative are the Joneses? Economic growth between individual desire and social coercion," VÖÖ Discussion Papers 4/2017, Vereinigung für Ökologische Ökonomie e.V. (VÖÖ).
    5. Oliver Richters & Erhard Glötzl, 2020. "Modeling economic forces, power relations, and stock-flow consistency: a general constrained dynamics approach," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(2), pages 281-297, April.
    6. Barth, Jonathan & Richters, Oliver & Siemoneit, Andreas, 2018. "Wider den Wachstumszwang: Institutionelle Auswege aus einem sozialen und ökologischen Dilemma," ZOE Discussion Papers 1, ZOE. institute for future-fit economies, Bonn.
    7. Richters, Oliver & Siemoneit, Andreas, 2021. "Making markets just: Reciprocity violations as key intervention points," ZOE Discussion Papers 7, ZOE. institute for future-fit economies, Bonn.
    8. Stef Kuypers & Thomas Goorden & Bruno Delepierre, 2021. "Computational Analysis of the Properties of Post-Keynesian Endogenous Money Systems," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-25, July.
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    10. Richters, Oliver & Siemoneit, Andreas, 2020. "System change, not climate change? Marktwirtschaft zwischen Utopie und Wachstumszwang," ZOE Discussion Papers 5, ZOE. institute for future-fit economies, Bonn.
    11. Larue, Louis, 2020. "The Ecology of Money: A Critical Assessment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
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    13. Adam B. Barrett, 2017. "Stability of zero-growth economics analysed with a Minskyan model," Papers 1704.08161, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2017.
    14. Eckhard Hein & Valeria Jimenez, 2022. "The macroeconomic implications of zero growth: a post-Keynesian approach," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 19(1), pages 41-60, April.
    15. Richters, Oliver & Siemoneit, Andreas, 2017. "Wachstumszwänge: Ressourcenverbrauch und Akkumulation als Wettbewerbsverzerrungen," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 169-182.
    16. Richters, Oliver & Siemoneit, Andreas, 2019. "Growth imperatives: Substantiating a contested concept," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 126-137.
    17. Olk, Christopher & Schneider, Colleen & Hickel, Jason, 2023. "How to pay for saving the world: Modern Monetary Theory for a degrowth transition," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120343, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Hartley, Tilman & Kallis, Giorgos, 2021. "Interest-bearing loans and unpayable debts in slow-growing economies: Insights from ten historical cases," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    19. Carnevali, Emilio & Deleidi, Matteo & Pariboni, Riccardo & Veronese Passarella, Marco, 2021. "Cross-border financial flows and global warming in a two-area ecological SFC model," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ecological macroeconomics; Zero growth; Growth imperative; Monetary economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q01 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Sustainable Development
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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