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Robust Surveillance and Control of Invasive Species Using a Scenario Optimization Approach

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  • Yemshanov, Denys
  • Haight, Robert G.
  • Koch, Frank H.
  • Lu, Bo
  • Venette, Robert
  • Fournier, Ronald E.
  • Turgeon, Jean J.

Abstract

Uncertainty about future outcomes of invasions is a major hurdle in the planning of invasive species management programs. We present a scenario optimization model that incorporates uncertainty about the spread of an invasive species and allocates survey and eradication measures to minimize the number of infested or potentially infested host plants on the landscape. We demonstrate the approach by allocating surveys outside the quarantine area established following the discovery of the Asian longhorned beetle (ALB) in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Ontario, Canada. We use historical data on ALB spread to generate a set of invasion scenarios that characterizes the uncertainty of the pest's extent in the GTA. We then use these scenarios to find allocations of surveys and tree removals aimed at managing the spread of the pest in the GTA. It is optimal to spend approximately one-fifth of the budget on surveys and the rest on tree removal. Optimal solutions do not always select sites with the greatest propagule pressure, but in some cases focus on sites with moderate likelihoods of ALB arrival and low host densities. Our approach is generalizable and helps support decisions regarding control of invasive species when knowledge about a species' spread is uncertain.

Suggested Citation

  • Yemshanov, Denys & Haight, Robert G. & Koch, Frank H. & Lu, Bo & Venette, Robert & Fournier, Ronald E. & Turgeon, Jean J., 2017. "Robust Surveillance and Control of Invasive Species Using a Scenario Optimization Approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 86-98.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:133:y:2017:i:c:p:86-98
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.11.018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Epanchin-Niell, Rebecca S. & Liebhold, Andrew M., 2015. "Benefits of invasion prevention: Effect of time lags, spread rates, and damage persistence," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 146-153.
    2. Mehta, Shefali V. & Haight, Robert G. & Homans, Frances R. & Polasky, Stephen & Venette, Robert C., 2007. "Optimal detection and control strategies for invasive species management," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2-3), pages 237-245, March.
    3. Kim, C.S. & Lubowski, Ruben N. & Lewandrowski, Jan & Eiswerth, Mark E., 2006. "Prevention or Control: Optimal Government Policies for Invasive Species Management," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 35(1), pages 1-12, April.
    4. Lars J. Olson & Santanu Roy, 2005. "On Prevention and Control of an Uncertain Biological Invasion," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 27(3), pages 491-497.
    5. Andrew J Mason, 2013. "SolverStudio: A New Tool for Better Optimisation and Simulation Modelling in Excel," INFORMS Transactions on Education, INFORMS, vol. 14(1), pages 45-52, September.
    6. Yemshanov, Denys & Koch, Frank H. & Lu, Bo & Lyons, D. Barry & Prestemon, Jeffrey P. & Scarr, Taylor & Koehler, Klaus, 2014. "There is no silver bullet: The value of diversification in planning invasive species surveillance," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 61-72.
    7. Haight, Robert G. & Polasky, Stephen, 2010. "Optimal control of an invasive species with imperfect information about the level of infestation," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 519-533, November.
    8. Gulpinar, Nalan & Rustem, Berc & Settergren, Reuben, 2004. "Simulation and optimization approaches to scenario tree generation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1291-1315, April.
    9. Horie, Tetsuya & Haight, Robert G. & Homans, Frances R. & Venette, Robert C., 2013. "Optimal strategies for the surveillance and control of forest pathogens: A case study with oak wilt," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 78-85.
    10. Juliann E Aukema & Brian Leung & Kent Kovacs & Corey Chivers & Kerry O Britton & Jeffrey Englin & Susan J Frankel & Robert G Haight & Thomas P Holmes & Andrew M Liebhold & Deborah G McCullough & Betsy, 2011. "Economic Impacts of Non-Native Forest Insects in the Continental United States," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(9), pages 1-7, September.
    11. Kim, C.S. & Lubowski, Ruben N. & Lewandrowski, Jan & Eiswerth, Mark E., 2006. "Prevention or Control: Optimal Government Policies for Invasive Species Management," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(1), pages 29-40, April.
    12. Sims, Charles & Finnoff, David, 2013. "When is a “wait and see” approach to invasive species justified?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 235-255.
    13. Trond Rafoss, 2003. "Spatial Stochastic Simulation Offers Potential as a Quantitative Method for Pest Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(4), pages 651-661, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Barnes, Belinda & Giannini, Fiona & Arthur, Anthony & Walker, James, 2019. "Optimal allocation of limited resources to biosecurity surveillance using a portfolio theory methodology," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 153-162.
    2. Barnes, Belinda & Arthur, Anthony D. & Bloomfield, Nathaniel J., 2020. "A Stochastic Economic Framework for Partitioning Biosecurity Surveillance Resources," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    3. Denys Yemshanov & Robert G Haight & Cuicui Chen & Ning Liu & Christian J K MacQuarrie & Frank H Koch & Robert Venette & Krista Ryall, 2019. "Managing biological invasions in urban environments with the acceptance sampling approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(8), pages 1-28, August.
    4. İ. Esra Büyüktahtakın & Robert G. Haight, 2018. "A review of operations research models in invasive species management: state of the art, challenges, and future directions," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 271(2), pages 357-403, December.
    5. Eyyüb Y. Kıbış & İ. Esra Büyüktahtakın & Robert G. Haight & Najmaddin Akhundov & Kathleen Knight & Charles E. Flower, 2021. "A Multistage Stochastic Programming Approach to the Optimal Surveillance and Control of the Emerald Ash Borer in Cities," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 33(2), pages 808-834, May.
    6. Bonneau, Mathieu & Martin, Julien & Peyrard, Nathalie & Rodgers, Leroy & Romagosa, Christina M. & Johnson, Fred A., 2019. "Optimal spatial allocation of control effort to manage invasives in the face of imperfect detection and misclassification," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 392(C), pages 108-116.
    7. Yemshanov, Denys & Haight, Robert G. & Koch, Frank H. & Venette, Robert C. & Swystun, Tom & Fournier, Ronald E. & Marcotte, Mireille & Chen, Yongguang & Turgeon, Jean J., 2019. "Optimizing surveillance strategies for early detection of invasive alien species," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 87-99.

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