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Evaluating monetary policy rules under fundamental uncertainty: An info-gap approach

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  • Ben-Haim, Yakov
  • Demertzis, Maria
  • Van den End, Jan Willem

Abstract

Monetary transmission mechanisms after the financial crisis are poorly understood. This implies that monetary policy decisions are made under very high and immeasurable uncertainty. We evaluate alternative Taylor rules that reflect different views, assuming fundamental uncertainty on the parameters and shocks. Rather than selecting rules based on their econometric fit, we apply info-gap theory to rank the rules according to a different criterion: the trade-off between robustness to uncertainty and performance. We find that in the euro area a standard Taylor rule, based on a traditional and well understood macroeconomic model, outperforms more complicated rules that include a credit spread or a debt-to-GDP ratio. It implies that monetary policy that refrains from aiming at financial stability is most robust to uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Ben-Haim, Yakov & Demertzis, Maria & Van den End, Jan Willem, 2018. "Evaluating monetary policy rules under fundamental uncertainty: An info-gap approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 55-70.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:73:y:2018:i:c:p:55-70
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2018.03.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Drudi, Francesco & Moench, Emanuel & Holthausen, Cornelia & Weber, Pierre-François & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Setzer, Ralph & Adao, Bernardino & Dées, Stéphane & Alogoskoufis, Spyros & Téllez, Mar Delgad, 2021. "Climate change and monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 271, European Central Bank.
    2. Yakov Ben-Haim & Jan Willem van den End, 2019. "Fundamental uncertainty about the natural rate of interest: Info-gap as guide for monetary policy," DNB Working Papers 650, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    3. Yakov Ben‐Haim & Jan Willem Van den End, 2022. "Assessing uncertainty in the natural rate of interest: Info‐gap as guide for monetary policy in the euro area," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3228-3245, July.
    4. Balke, Nathan S. & Martínez-García, Enrique & Zeng, Zheng, 2021. "In no uncertain terms: The effect of uncertainty on credit frictions and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    5. Mario Carceller del Arco & Jan Willem van den End, 2023. "Robust monetary policy under shock uncertainty," Working Papers 793, DNB.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Monetary strategy; Knightian uncertainty; Info-gaps; Satisficing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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