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Why does bank credit not drive money in Germany (any more)?

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  • Kuzin, Vladimir
  • Schobert, Franziska

Abstract

Since the turn of the millennium a gap between credit growth and GDP growth has emerged in Germany. The gap widens with surpluses of the German trade balance to other euro area countries and becomes negative, when surpluses of the trade balance contract. This phenomenon is accompanied by a new pattern of money growth, which is not driven by domestic credit of banks any more but by their net foreign assets. German nonfinancial corporations have rising equity ratios and provide other sectors with funds on a net basis. Moreover, their deposits with German banks have grown at a much stronger pace than their loans. We suspect that German membership in the European monetary union is an important explanation of the changing behavior in the real and financial sector and show the substitution between export cash-flows and domestic credit theoretically in a two-country model of post-Keynesian type, in which the two countries use a common currency.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuzin, Vladimir & Schobert, Franziska, 2015. "Why does bank credit not drive money in Germany (any more)?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 41-51.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:48:y:2015:i:c:p:41-51
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.10.013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2019. "Do sterilized foreign exchange interventions create money?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-16.
    2. repec:zbw:bofitp:2016_004 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Ramis Khabibullin & Alexey Ponomarenko & Sergei Seleznev, 2018. "Forecasting the implications of foreign exchange reserve accumulation with an agent-based model," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps37, Bank of Russia.
    4. Unger, Robert, 2017. "Asymmetric credit growth and current account imbalances in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 435-451.
    5. Alexey Ponomarenko, 2017. "A note on money creation in emerging market economies," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(1), pages 70-85, April.
    6. Maciej Ryczkowski, 2020. "Money and credit during normal times and house price booms: evidence from time-frequency analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(4), pages 835-861, November.
    7. Alexey Ponomarenko, 2023. "National Currencies in International Settlements: Main Mechanisms," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 82(3), pages 35-47, September.
    8. Alexey Ponomarenko, 2017. "A note on money creation in emerging market economies," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 9(1), pages 70-85, April.
    9. Alexey Ponomarenko, 2019. "Foreign exchange reserves and money supply," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series note19, Bank of Russia.

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