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The economic effects of lowering HIV incidence in South Africa: A CGE analysis

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  • Roos, E.L.
  • Giesecke, J.A.

Abstract

South Africa has the highest UNAIDS HIV severity rating: “generalised pandemic”. A country with this classification requires public health interventions aimed at the general population. This paper investigates the efficacy of one such policy, examining the national economic effects of an increase in condom use. We use an epidemiological model to estimate the impact of condom use on HIV infections distinguished by age, gender and race. The epidemiological model's outputs are input to an economy-wide dynamic general equilibrium model that distinguishes labour market participants by age, gender, race, labour market status and HIV status. We find that the programme generates gains in real consumption with a present value of approximately USD $30billion, or USD $2000 per household.

Suggested Citation

  • Roos, E.L. & Giesecke, J.A., 2014. "The economic effects of lowering HIV incidence in South Africa: A CGE analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 123-137.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:39:y:2014:i:c:p:123-137
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.02.028
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter B. Dixon & Martin Johnson & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2011. "Economy‐Wide Effects Of Reducing Illegal Immigrants In U.S. Employment," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(1), pages 14-30, January.
    2. Louise Roos, 2014. "Theoretical specification of a labour-supply module, including HIV/AIDS, for South Africa," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-241, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    3. Mr. Markus Haacker, 2002. "The Economic Consequences of HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa," IMF Working Papers 2002/038, International Monetary Fund.
    4. CN Morris & DR Burdge & EJ Cheevers, 2000. "Economic Impact of HIV Infection in a Cohort of Male Sugar Mill Workers in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 413-419, December.
    5. Louise Roos, 2013. "Labour-market database for South Africa with HIV/AIDS detail," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-235, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    6. Dixon, Peter B. & Parmenter, B. R. & Powell, Alan A., 1984. "The role of miniatures in computable general equilibrium modelling : Experience from ORANI," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 421-428, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. E. Roos & P. Adams & J. Heerden, 2015. "Constructing a CGE Database Using GEMPACK for an African Country," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 46(4), pages 495-518, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Computable general equilibrium (CGE); Africa; HIV prevention;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • I19 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Other
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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