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Using the Murphy Model to Provide Short-Run Macroeconomic Closure for ORANI

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Author Info
James H. Breece
Keith R. McLaren
Chris W. Murphy
Alan A. Powell

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Abstract

A macro model incorporating rational expectations in financial markets (the Murphy Model - MM) is used to endogenize the macroeconomic environment for a comprehensive general equilibrium model (ORANI). The interface exploits the existence of variables which are endogenous to both models, calibrating on a shock to government spending, which is the principal common exogeneity. The responses of the half-dozen doubly endogenous variables feature prominently in the calibration procedure, which minimizes any conflict between the stories told about these variables by the two models. Prospective benefits include: (1) to the numerous policy-oriented users of ORANI, a facility allowing the macroeconomic environment to be determined by a macrodynamic model such as MM; (2) to these users, reassurance that ORANI's short-run translates in calendar time to about two years; (3) to the clientele of a macro model, the possibility of much more detailed projections..

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Paper provided by Monash University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre in its series Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers with number ip-56.

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Date of creation: Jul 1991
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Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:ip-56

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  1. Peter Jonson & Warwick McKibbin & Robert Trevor, . "Models and Multipliers," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp8006, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  2. Cooper, Russel J & McLaren, Keith R, 1983. "The ORANI-MACRO Interface: An Illustrative Exposition," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 59(165), pages 166-79, June.
  3. Murphy, C W, 1988. "An Overview of the Murphy Model," Australian Economic Papers, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(0), pages 175-99, Supplemen.
  4. Murphy, C W, 1988. "Rational Expectations in Financial Markets and the Murphy Model," Australian Economic Papers, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(0), pages 61-88, Supplemen.
  5. Pearson, K. R., 1988. "Automating the computation of solutions of large economic models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 385-395, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Bruce F. Parsell & Alan A. Powell & Peter J. Wilcoxen, 1989. "The Reconciliation of Computable General Equilibrium and Macroeconomic Modelling: Grounds for Hope?," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers ip-44, Monash University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre. [Downloadable!]
  7. Dixon, Peter B. & Parmenter, B. R. & Powell, Alan A., 1984. "The role of miniatures in computable general equilibrium modelling : Experience from ORANI," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 421-428, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Parsell, Bruce F & Powell, Alan A & Wilcoxen, Peter J, 1991. "The Effects of Fiscal Restraint on the Australian Economy as Projected by the Murphy and MSG2 Models: A Comparison," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 67(197), pages 97-114, June.
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