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Measuring major and minor cycles in univariate economic time series

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  • Fukuda, Kosei

Abstract

The coexistence of cycles with different periods complicates the assessment of the current macroeconomic conditions. In order to overcome this problem, a modeling of multiple autoregressive processes in a univariate time series is presented. In the proposed model, individual autoregressive processes are assumed to be mutually uncorrelated, and the number of individual autoregressive processes is determined using information criteria. Simulation results show that the proposed procedure is sufficiently applicable for measuring major and minor cycles. Empirical applications suggest the usefulness and limitations of the proposed method.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 26 (2009)
Issue (Month): 5 (September)
Pages: 1093-1100

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:26:y:2009:i:5:p:1093-1100

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

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Keywords: Major cycle Minor cycle Multiple autoregressive processes;

References

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  1. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  2. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  3. Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Detrending and Business Cycle Facts," CEPR Discussion Papers 782, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Afonso, Antonio & Claeys, Peter, 2008. "The dynamic behaviour of budget components and output," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 93-117, January.
  5. James C. Morley & Charles R. Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2003. "Why Are the Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Components Decompositions of GDP So Different?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 235-243, May.
  6. Haitham A. Al Zoubi & Aktham Maghyereh, 2005. "Examining complex unit roots in the MENA countries industrial production indices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 255-259.
  7. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
  8. Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn92-1.
  9. Kosei Fukuda, 2006. "Age-period-cohort decomposition of aggregate data: an application to US and Japanese household saving rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(7), pages 981-998.
  10. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
  11. Kosei Fukuda, 2008. "The validity of trend-cycle decomposition using unobserved component model: Monte Carlo evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(5), pages 367-369.
  12. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A user's guide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 533-540, May.
  13. Clark, Peter K, 1987. "The Cyclical Component of U.S. Economic Activity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 797-814, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Thuraisamy, Kannan S., 2013. "Common trends and common cycles in stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 472-476.

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