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An analysis of regime shifts in the Turkish economy

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  • Yilmazkuday, Hakan
  • Akay, Koray

Abstract

We use a time-varying dynamic factor model with regime switching to construct and estimate the leading indicators of the currency crises in Turkey. After that, we analyze the business cycles of the Turkish economy, by using a three-state univariate Markov-switching model. Both models capture the observed dynamics of the Turkish economy over the period 1987-2002.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 25 (2008)
Issue (Month): 5 (September)
Pages: 885-898

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:25:y:2008:i:5:p:885-898

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

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  6. Vázquez Pérez, Jesús, 2003. "Switching Regimes in the Term Structure of Interest Rates During U.S. Post-War: A case for the Lucas proof equilibrium?," DFAEII Working Papers 2002-33, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
  7. Garcia, R. & Perron, P., 1994. "An Analysis of the Real Interest rate Under Regime Shifts," Cahiers de recherche 9428, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
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  14. Bollen, Nicolas P. B. & Gray, Stephen F. & Whaley, Robert E., 2000. "Regime switching in foreign exchange rates: Evidence from currency option prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 239-276.
  15. Marcelle Chauvet & Fang Dong, 2004. "Leading indicators of country risk and currency crises: the Asian experience," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 1, pages 25 - 37.
  16. Fatih Ozatay, 2000. "The 1994 currency crisis in Turkey," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 327-352.
  17. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Arslanturk, Yalcin & Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, 2011. "Time-varying linkages between tourism receipts and economic growth in a small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 664-671, January.
  2. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2009. "Inflation Targeting and Inflation Convergence within Turkey," MPRA Paper 16770, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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