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The Twin Crises: Determinants of Banking and Currency Crises in the Turkish Economy

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  • Ali Ari
  • Raif Cergibozan

Abstract

Several twin crises occurred in the Turkish economy in the last three decades. In this article, we aim to analyze the link between banking and currency crises and to illustrate the essential determinants of these twin crises by developing a multivariate logit model for the period 1990–2013. The empirical findings show that Turkish currency crises are mainly due to excessive fiscal deficits, rises in short-term external debt, overvaluation of Turkish lira, and external adverse shocks; banking crises are primarily caused by excessive money supplies and bank short positions. The empirical findings also indicate that banking crises lead to currency crises, and vice versa.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Ari & Raif Cergibozan, 2016. "The Twin Crises: Determinants of Banking and Currency Crises in the Turkish Economy," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(1), pages 123-135, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:52:y:2016:i:1:p:123-135
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2016.1105683
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    Cited by:

    1. Balaga Mohana Rao & Puja Padhi, 2020. "Common Determinants of the Likelihood of Currency Crises in BRICS," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(3), pages 698-712, June.
    2. Takashi FUKUDA, 2020. "Finance-Growth Nexus and Globalization in Brazil, India, Philippines, Thailand, and Turkey: Evidence from VECM Cointegration Analysis," Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, Tripal Publishing House, vol. 4(1), pages 55-77.
    3. Khan, Habib Hussain & Kutan, Ali M. & Naz, Iram & Qureshi, Fiza, 2017. "Efficiency, growth and market power in the banking industry: New approach to efficient structure hypothesis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 531-545.
    4. Nihat Tak & Adem Gök, 2022. "Dating currency crises and designing early warning systems: Meta‐possibilistic fuzzy index functions," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3773-3790, July.
    5. Balaga Mohana Rao & Puja Padhi, 2019. "Identifying the Early Warnings of Currency Crisis in India," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 54(4), pages 269-299, November.
    6. Yilmazkuday, Hakan & Akay, Koray, 2008. "An analysis of regime shifts in the Turkish economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 885-898, September.
    7. Mohana Rao BALAGA & Puja PADHI, 2017. "Evaluating Indian economy’s vulnerability to currency crisis," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(612), A), pages 97-114, Autumn.

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