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The dynamics of revolution: Discrimination, social unrest and the optimal timing of revolution

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  • Camacho, Carmen
  • Hassan, Waleed

Abstract

What makes a social movement turn into a revolution? This study explores the factors that influence this evolution, examining the economic and social elements that impact the timing of this profound event. By analyzing the dynamics of social unrest, we investigate discrimination, organizational skills, wage inequalities, and retaliation as key elements shaping the course of social unrest. Our objective is to identify the precise moment when a social movement transitions into a revolution, optimizing the well-being of marginalized workers. Our findings reveal that if unrest continues to grow over time and if a revolution results in a net welfare gain for the discriminated workers, then a revolution will occur regardless of the initial state of the economy. It is worth noting that a revolution can occur even if the social movement loses momentum, provided that the initial level of discontent is significant or the system is so repressive that a revolution becomes necessary.

Suggested Citation

  • Camacho, Carmen & Hassan, Waleed, 2023. "The dynamics of revolution: Discrimination, social unrest and the optimal timing of revolution," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:128:y:2023:i:c:s0264999323003012
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106489
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social unrest; Revolution dynamics; Wage inequality; Optimal switching time;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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