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A test–retest analysis of stated preferences in uncertain times

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  • Wunsch, Andrea
  • Meyerhoff, Jürgen
  • Rehdanz, Katrin

Abstract

In environmental valuation, the issue of the temporal stability of stated preferences to changes in environmental (dis)amenities is important because their results can be employed to inform decision-making. This includes cost–benefit analysis for large infrastructure projects such as coastal protection. A couple of studies have investigated stability of stated preferences over varying time periods. However, less evidence is available for temporal stability of stated preferences for (dis)amenities in uncertain times, i.e., times that are characterized by larger degrees of uncertainty regarding the (near) future. Using a choice experiment on coastal adaptation to climate change, this paper examines the test–retest reliability of individual preferences and resulting welfare estimates over the course of the Covid-19 pandemic. We do so by surveying the same respondents at two points in time five months apart during the ongoing pandemic. Using a latent class model, we find similar preference heterogeneity patterns but different class sizes. While the welfare measure of an adaptation scenario that focuses on safety increases across survey waves, scenarios that centre on recreation or nature have decreasing welfare effects. This suggests that individuals set other priorities in uncertain times.

Suggested Citation

  • Wunsch, Andrea & Meyerhoff, Jürgen & Rehdanz, Katrin, 2022. "A test–retest analysis of stated preferences in uncertain times," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 725-736.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:73:y:2022:i:c:p:725-736
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2021.12.021
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    9. Schaafsma, Marije & Brouwer, Roy & Liekens, Inge & De Nocker, Leo, 2014. "Temporal stability of preferences and willingness to pay for natural areas in choice experiments: A test–retest," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 243-260.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Adaptation; Choice experiment; Climate change; Coastal protection; Covid-19 pandemic; Test re-test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q57 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Ecological Economics

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