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Liquidity premiums on government debt and the fiscal theory of the price level

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  • Berentsen, Aleksander
  • Waller, Christopher

Abstract

We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model where agents use nominal government bonds as collateral in secured lending arrangements. If the collateral constraint binds, agents price in a liquidity premium on bonds that lowers the real rate on bonds. In equilibrium, the price level is determined according to the fiscal theory of the price level. However, the market value of government debt exceeds its fundamental value. We then examine the dynamic properties of the model and show that the market value of the government debt can fluctuate even though there are no changes to current or future taxes or spending. The price dynamics are driven solely by the liquidity premium on the debt.

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  • Berentsen, Aleksander & Waller, Christopher, 2018. "Liquidity premiums on government debt and the fiscal theory of the price level," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 173-182.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:89:y:2018:i:c:p:173-182
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2018.01.038
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    Cited by:

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    2. Begona Dominguez & Pedro Gomis-Porqueras, 2019. "The effects of secondary markets for government bonds on inflation dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 249-273, April.
    3. Guillermo Santos, 2022. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy with preference over safe assets," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2022021, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    4. Marco Bassetto & Thomas J. Sargent, 2020. "Shotgun Wedding: Fiscal and Monetary Policy," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 659-690, August.
    5. Leonardo Martinez & Francisco Roch & Francisco Roldán & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2023. "Sovereign debt," Chapters, in: Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright (ed.), Research Handbook of Financial Markets, chapter 17, pages 378-405, Edward Elgar Publishing.
      • Mr. Leonardo Martinez & Mr. Francisco Roch & Francisco Roldán & Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2022. "Sovereign Debt," IMF Working Papers 2022/122, International Monetary Fund.
      • Leonardo Martinez & Francisco Roch & Francisco Roldan & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2022. "Sovereign Debt," Working Papers 167, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    6. Marco Bassetto & David S. Miller, 2022. "A monetary-fiscal theory of sudden inflations," IFS Working Papers W22/56, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    7. Williamson, Stephen D., 2018. "Can the fiscal authority constrain the central bank?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 154-172.
    8. Marco Bassetto & Wei Cui, 2018. "The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level in an Environment of Low Interest Rates," 2018 Meeting Papers 574, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Roudari, Soheil & Salmani, Yunes, 2020. "Macroeconomic Effects of Government Debt to Banks in Iran," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 15(4), pages 403-422, October.
    10. Bassetto, Marco & Cui, Wei, 2018. "The fiscal theory of the price level in a world of low interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 5-22.
    11. Ricardo Reis, 2022. "Debt Revenue and the Sustainability of Public Debt," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 103-124, Fall.
    12. Ricardo Reis, 2022. "Debt Revenue and the Sustainability of Public Debt," Discussion Papers 2214, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    13. David S. Miller, 2021. "A Monetary-Fiscal Theory of Sudden Inflations and Currency Crises," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-057, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Dominguez, Begona & Gomis-Porqueras, Pedro, 2023. "Accessing U.S. Dollar Swap Lines: Macroeconomic Implications for a Small Open Economy," MPRA Paper 118293, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Begoña Domínguez & Pedro Gomis‐Porqueras, 2023. "Normalizing the Central Bank's Balance Sheet: Implications for Inflation and Debt Dynamics," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(4), pages 945-974, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Price level; Fiscal Theory; Liquidity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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