Childhood risk factors for disability pension among adult former Swedish child welfare clients: Same or different as for majority population peers?

This study contributes to the literature on preventing social exclusion, here indicated by collecting disability pension in adulthood, by asking whether the pattern and strength of childhood related risk factors is the same for high-risk child welfare clients, as for their peers in the majority population. Longitudinal register data on >500,000 Swedes, including around 18,000 former child welfare clients, were analyzed by means of linear probability models and calculations of population attributable fractions. Systematic comparisons of effect sizes suggest that the differences in pattern were marginal, but there were significant differences in strength. Overall, poor educational achievement and low educational attainment were the two most prominent risk factors across all groups, also when prevalence was taken into account. In the majority population, the hypothetical reduction of collecting disability pension was on the scale of 20% if either of the two risk factors could be eliminated. Among child welfare alumni, however, the hypothetical reduction was even larger, nearly 30% on average. Prevention strategies targeting poor school performance and low educational attainment may thus substantially reduce the prevalence of disability pension among adults with a history of child welfare involvement.