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Can stock message board sentiment predict future returns? Local versus nonlocal posts

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  • Chang, Yen-Cheng
  • Shao, Ran
  • Wang, Na

Abstract

Using textual analysis of stock message board posts, we find that investors’ sentiment expressed through messages can predict future one-day stock returns. For small stocks, message board sentiment can predict up to two-day cumulative future returns. This increased predictive power on small stocks is restricted mainly to local posts, which originate from the provinces in which stocks’ headquarters are located. Nonlocal posts exhibit a stronger trend-chasing sentiment than local posts. Furthermore, we find no evidence of the long-term predictive power of message board sentiment. Overall, our findings support the short-term information advantages of local investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang, Yen-Cheng & Shao, Ran & Wang, Na, 2022. "Can stock message board sentiment predict future returns? Local versus nonlocal posts," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:beexfi:v:34:y:2022:i:c:s2214635022000016
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2022.100625
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dhasmana, Samriddhi & Ghosh, Sajal & Kanjilal, Kakali, 2023. "Does investor sentiment influence ESG stock performance? Evidence from India," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock message board; Investor sentiment; Local versus nonlocal posts; Return predictability; Small stocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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