IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/beexfi/v30y2021ics2214635021000216.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Immune or at-risk? Stock markets and the significance of the COVID-19 pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • O’Donnell, Niall
  • Shannon, Darren
  • Sheehan, Barry

Abstract

The closure of borders and traditional commerce due to the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to have a lasting financial impact. We determine whether the growth in COVID-19 affected index prices by examining equity markets in five regional epicentres, along with a ‘global’ index. We also investigate the impact of COVID-19 after controlling for investor sentiment, credit risk, liquidity risk, safe-haven asset demand and the price of oil. Despite controlling for these traditional market drivers, the daily totals of COVID-19 cases nevertheless explained index price changes in Spain, Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States. Similar results were not observed in China, the origin of the virus, nor in the ‘global’ index (MSCI World). Our results suggest that early interventions (China) and the spatiotemporal nature of pandemic epicentres (World) should be considered by governments, regulators and relevant stakeholders in the event of future COVID-19 ‘waves’ or further extreme societal disruptions.

Suggested Citation

  • O’Donnell, Niall & Shannon, Darren & Sheehan, Barry, 2021. "Immune or at-risk? Stock markets and the significance of the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:beexfi:v:30:y:2021:i:c:s2214635021000216
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2021.100477
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214635021000216
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbef.2021.100477?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Sanford J. Grossman & Jiang Wang, 1993. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 905-939.
    3. Boudt, Kris & Paulus, Ellen C.S. & Rosenthal, Dale W.R., 2017. "Funding liquidity, market liquidity and TED spread: A two-regime model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 143-158.
    4. Rajdeep Sengupta & Yu Man Tam, 2008. "The LIBOR-OIS spread as a summary indicator," Monetary Trends, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov.
    5. Stefano Ramelli & Alexander F Wagner, 2020. "Feverish Stock Price Reactions to COVID-19," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(3), pages 622-655.
    6. Thomas A. Garrett, 2008. "Pandemic economics: the 1918 influenza and its modern-day implications," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Mar), pages 74-94.
    7. Al-Awadhi, Abdullah M. & Alsaifi, Khaled & Al-Awadhi, Ahmad & Alhammadi, Salah, 2020. "Death and contagious infectious diseases: Impact of the COVID-19 virus on stock market returns," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    8. Zhang, Dayong & Hu, Min & Ji, Qiang, 2020. "Financial markets under the global pandemic of COVID-19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    9. Florackis, Chris & Kontonikas, Alexandros & Kostakis, Alexandros, 2014. "Stock market liquidity and macro-liquidity shocks: Evidence from the 2007–2009 financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 97-117.
    10. Stefano Ramelli & Alexander F. Wagner, 2020. "Feverish Stock Price Reactions to COVID-19," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 20-12, Swiss Finance Institute.
    11. Lutz Kilian & Cheolbeom Park, 2009. "The Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On The U.S. Stock Market," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1267-1287, November.
    12. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    13. Asani Sarkar, 2009. "Liquidity risk, credit risk, and the federal reserve’s responses to the crisis," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 23(4), pages 335-348, December.
    14. Srinivas Nippani & Kenneth Washer, 2004. "SARS: a non-event for affected countries' stock markets?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(15), pages 1105-1110.
    15. Niels Joachim Gormsen & Ralph S J Koijen & Nikolai Roussanov, 0. "Coronavirus: Impact on Stock Prices and Growth Expectations," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 574-597.
    16. Stefano Ramelli & Alexander F Wagner, 0. "Feverish Stock Price Reactions to COVID-19," Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 622-655.
    17. Daniel L. Thornton, 2009. "What the Libor-OIS spread says," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    18. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
    19. Sakaki, Hamid, 2019. "Oil price shocks and the equity market: Evidence for the S&P 500 sectoral indices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 137-155.
    20. Ali, Mohsin & Alam, Nafis & Rizvi, Syed Aun R., 2020. "Coronavirus (COVID-19) — An epidemic or pandemic for financial markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    21. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Kyle J. Kost & Marco C. Sammon & Tasaneeya Viratyosin, 2020. "The Unprecedented Stock Market Impact of COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 26945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Andreas Schrimpf & Hyun Song Shin & Vladyslav Sushko, 2020. "Leverage and margin spirals in fixed income markets during the Covid-19 crisis," BIS Bulletins 2, Bank for International Settlements.
    23. World Bank, 2020. "The COVID-19 Pandemic [Pandémie De Covid-19]," World Bank Publications - Reports 33696, The World Bank Group.
    24. Akyildirim, Erdinc & Corbet, Shaen & Efthymiou, Marina & Guiomard, Cathal & O'Connell, John F. & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2020. "The financial market effects of international aviation disasters," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    25. Corbet, Shaen & Larkin, Charles & Lucey, Brian, 2020. "The contagion effects of the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from gold and cryptocurrencies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    26. Brainerd, Elizabeth & Siegler, Mark V, 2003. "The Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Epidemic," CEPR Discussion Papers 3791, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    27. Goodell, John W., 2020. "COVID-19 and finance: Agendas for future research," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    28. Poshakwale, Sunil S. & Chandorkar, Pankaj & Agarwal, Vineet, 2019. "Implied volatility and the cross section of stock returns in the UK," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 271-286.
    29. Ichev, Riste & Marinč, Matej, 2018. "Stock prices and geographic proximity of information: Evidence from the Ebola outbreak," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 153-166.
    30. Wagner, Alexander F. & Ramelli, Stefano, 2020. "Feverish Stock Price Reactions to COVID-19," CEPR Discussion Papers 14511, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    31. Del Giudice, Alfonso & Paltrinieri, Andrea, 2017. "The impact of the Arab Spring and the Ebola outbreak on African equity mutual fund investor decisions," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 600-612.
    32. Ashraf, Badar Nadeem, 2020. "Stock markets’ reaction to COVID-19: Cases or fatalities?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Syed, Sarfaraz Ali Shah, 2022. "Stock market in the age of COVID19: Mere acclimatization or Stockholm syndrome?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    2. Angosto-Fernández Pedro Luis & Ferrández-Serrano Victoria, 2022. "World capital markets facing the first wave of COVID-19: Traditional event study versus sensitivity to new cases," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 8(4), pages 5-38, December.
    3. Kotcharin, Suntichai & Maneenop, Sakkakom & Jaroenjitrkam, Anutchanat, 2023. "The impact of government policy responses on airline stock return during the COVID-19 crisis," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    4. Zaheda Daruwala, 2022. "Reactive or Immune: Stock Market Behaviour During Subsequent Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 12(6), pages 92-106, November.
    5. Chebbi, Kaouther & Ammer, Mohammed Abdullah & Hameed, Affan, 2021. "The COVID-19 pandemic and stock liquidity: Evidence from S&P 500," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 134-142.
    6. Dmitry A. Endovitsky & Viacheslav V. Korotkikh & Denis A. Khripushin, 2021. "Equity Risk and Return across Hidden Market Regimes," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-21, October.
    7. Yarovaya, Larisa & Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Goodell, John W. & Lucey, Brian & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2022. "Rethinking financial contagion: Information transmission mechanism during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    8. Khan, Muhammad Asif & Segovia, Juan E.Trinidad & Bhatti, M.Ishaq & Kabir, Asif, 2023. "Corporate vulnerability in the US and China during COVID-19: A machine learning approach," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    9. Abuzayed, Bana & Al-Fayoumi, Nedal, 2021. "Risk spillover from crude oil prices to GCC stock market returns: New evidence during the COVID-19 outbreak," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    10. Tsai, I-Chun, 2022. "Changes in social behavior and impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on regional housing markets: Independence and risk," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    11. Maneejuk, Paravee & Kaewtathip, Nuttaphong & Jaipong, Peemmawat & Yamaka, Woraphon, 2022. "The transition of the global financial markets' connectedness during the COVID-19 pandemic," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    12. repec:thr:techub:10025:y:2021:i:1:p:260-272 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Hartono, 2021. "Developing country stock market immunity during Covid-19 pandemic," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 18(1), pages 222-229, April.
    14. Li, Yanshuang & Shi, Yujie & Shi, Yongdong & Yi, Shangkun & Zhang, Weiping, 2023. "COVID-19 vaccinations and risk spillovers: Evidence from Asia-Pacific stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    15. Biktimirov, Ernest N. & Sokolyk, Tatyana & Ayanso, Anteneh, 2021. "Sentiment and hype of business media topics and stock market returns during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    16. Hasan, Md. Tanvir, 2022. "The sum of all SCARES COVID-19 sentiment and asset return," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 332-346.
    17. Greta Keliuotyte-Staniuleniene & Julius Kviklis, 2021. "Assessing the reaction of the Baltic stock market to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 25(1), pages 260-272, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Bwanya, Princess Rutendo & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2022. "The impact and role of COVID-19 uncertainty: A global industry analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    2. Md. Bokhtiar Hasan & Masnun Mahi & Tapan Sarker & Md. Ruhul Amin, 2021. "Spillovers of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Impact on Global Economic Activity, the Stock Market, and the Energy Sector," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-18, May.
    3. Hunjra, Ahmed Imran & Kijkasiwat, Ploypailin & Arunachalam, Murugesh & Hammami, Helmi, 2021. "Covid-19 health policy intervention and volatility of Asian capital markets," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    4. Alomari, Mohammad & Al Rababa'a, Abdel Razzaq & Ur Rehman, Mobeen & Power, David M., 2022. "Infectious diseases tracking and sectoral stock market returns: A quantile regression analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    5. Zaremba, Adam & Kizys, Renatas & Tzouvanas, Panagiotis & Aharon, David Y. & Demir, Ender, 2021. "The quest for multidimensional financial immunity to the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from international stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    6. Hasan, Md. Bokhtiar & Mahi, Masnun & Hassan, M. Kabir & Bhuiyan, Abul Bashar, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on stock markets: Conventional vs. Islamic indices using wavelet-based multi-timescales analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    7. Enilov, Martin & Mensi, Walid & Stankov, Petar, 2023. "Does safe haven exist? Tail risks of commodity markets during COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    8. Aharon, David Y. & Siev, Smadar, 2021. "COVID-19, government interventions and emerging capital markets performance," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    9. Tarchella, Salma & Dhaoui, Abderrazak, 2021. "Chinese jigsaw: Solving the equity market response to the COVID-19 crisis: Do alternative asset provide effective hedging performance?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    10. Chebbi, Kaouther & Ammer, Mohammed Abdullah & Hameed, Affan, 2021. "The COVID-19 pandemic and stock liquidity: Evidence from S&P 500," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 134-142.
    11. Siemaszkiewicz Karolina, 2021. "Safe Haven Instruments – A Comparison Between the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid-19 Pandemic," Econometrics. Advances in Applied Data Analysis, Sciendo, vol. 25(4), pages 1-16, December.
    12. Ashraf, Badar Nadeem, 2021. "Stock markets’ reaction to Covid-19: Moderating role of national culture," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    13. Kamal, Javed Bin & Wohar, Mark, 2023. "Heterogenous responses of stock markets to covid related news and sentiments: Evidence from the 1st year of pandemic," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 68-85.
    14. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Karikari, Nana Kwasi & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, 2022. "The outbreak of COVID-19 and stock market liquidity: Evidence from emerging and developed equity markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    15. Yarovaya, Larisa & Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Goodell, John W. & Lucey, Brian & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2022. "Rethinking financial contagion: Information transmission mechanism during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    16. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2021. "Who should be afraid of infections? Pandemic exposure and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    17. Tomás Gómez Rodríguez & Humberto Ríos Bolívar & Adriana Zambrano Reyes, 2021. "Volatilidad y COVID-19: evidencia empírica internacional," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(3), pages 1-20, Julio - S.
    18. Manel Youssef & Khaled Mokni & Ahdi Noomen Ajmi, 2021. "Dynamic connectedness between stock markets in the presence of the COVID-19 pandemic: does economic policy uncertainty matter?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-27, December.
    19. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Bwanya, Princess Rutendo & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2023. "Which COVID-19 information really impacts stock markets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    20. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Bwanya, Princess Rutendo & Charteris, Ailie & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2021. "The only certainty is uncertainty: An analysis of the impact of COVID-19 uncertainty on regional stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:beexfi:v:30:y:2021:i:c:s2214635021000216. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-behavioral-and-experimental-finance .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.