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Why has economic growth slowed down in Indonesia? An investigation into the Indonesian business cycle using an estimated DSGE model

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  • Dutu, Richard

Abstract

Economic growth in Indonesia has been trending down from about 6.5% in 2010 to less than 5% recently. Calibrating and estimating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of Indonesia, we show that most of Indonesia’s growth over the last decade has been driven by supply factors, especially rising multi-factor productivity (MFP) as Indonesia reaped the benefits of post-Asian-crisis structural reforms. The pace of multi-factor productivity growth has slowed since 2010, however, a decelerating trend reinforced by slower world growth. A series of interest rate cuts has successfully managed to offset some of those headwinds. However, absent further structural reforms to revive productivity growth, supportive monetary policy will not be sufficient to sustain long-term growth and poses inflation risks.

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  • Dutu, Richard, 2016. "Why has economic growth slowed down in Indonesia? An investigation into the Indonesian business cycle using an estimated DSGE model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 46-55.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:45:y:2016:i:c:p:46-55
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2016.06.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hermawan, Danny & Lie, Denny & Sasongko, Aryo & Yusan, Richard, 2023. "Money velocity, digital currency, and inflation dynamics," MPRA Paper 116906, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Danny Hermawan & Denny Lie & Aryo Sasongko & Richard I. Yusan, 2023. "Money velocity, digital currency, and inflation dynamics," Working Papers 2023-01, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    3. Lie, Denny, 2021. "Implications of state-dependent pricing for DSGE model-based policy analysis in Indonesia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 532-552.
    4. Berry A. Harahap & Pakasa Bary & Anggita Cinditya M. Kusuma, 2020. "The Determinants of Indonesia’s Business Cycle," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(special i), pages 215-235.
    5. Zams, Bastian Muzbar, 2021. "Frictions and empirical fit in a DSGE model for Indonesia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    6. Danny Hermawan Adiwibowo & Aryo Sasongko & Denny Lie, 2022. "Money Velocity, Digital Currency, And Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers WP/13/2022, Bank Indonesia.
    7. Denny Lie, 2019. "Observed Inflation‐target Adjustments in an Estimated DSGE Model for Indonesia: Do They Matter for Aggregate Fluctuations?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 38(4), pages 261-285, December.
    8. Sekar Utami Setiastuti & Nur Muhammad Adhi Purwanto & Aryo Sasongko, 2020. "Exchange Rate Insulation Properties And The Role Of Macroprudential Policy In A Small Open Economy," Working Papers WP/11/2020, Bank Indonesia.
    9. Solikin M. Juhro & Denny Lie & Aryo Sasongko, 2022. "An estimated open-economy DSGE model for the evaluation of central bank policy mix," Working Papers 2022-01, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    10. Thitipat Chansriniyom & Mr. Natan P. Epstein & Valeriu Nalban, 2020. "The Monetary Policy Credibility Channel and the Amplification Effects in a Semi-structural Model," IMF Working Papers 2020/201, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Setiastuti, Sekar Utami & Purwanto, Nur M. Adhi & Sasongko, Aryo, 2021. "External debt management as macroprudential policy in a small open economy," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 446-462.

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