Modelling long-term and short-term temporal variation and uncertainty of electricity production in the life cycle assessment of buildings

The building stock is a major contributor to energy consumption and greenhouse gases emissions (GHG), which can be evaluated using life cycle assessment (LCA). Electrification of buildings, e.g. replacing fuel and gas boilers with heat pumps, in order to reduce these emissions is often seen as an option, but this will have short term effects by increasing peak demand, and long term effects by requiring more electricity production capacities. In this paper, a methodology to account for such interaction in LCA is presented. It connects three models addressing: market allocation on a national scale over a long term period, short term variation (i.e. seasonal, daily and hourly) of the electricity mix also on a national scale, and building energy simulation at the scale of one building. This methodology has been applied to a case study including a sample of buildings in the French context, but it can be used in other countries. Six buildings have been studied over 100 years considering 50 energy transition scenarios. Results show that the environmental impacts vary more depending on the scenarios than on the types of the building. Marginal mixes considered in consequential LCA are mainly composed of coal, gas, nuclear and peak technology production which explains the highest values of the different impacts compared to average mixes used in attributional LCA. This approach allows to address uncertainties related to electricity production.