IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v251y2019ic79.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A novel composite neural network based method for wind and solar power forecasting in microgrids

Author

Listed:
  • Heydari, Azim
  • Astiaso Garcia, Davide
  • Keynia, Farshid
  • Bisegna, Fabio
  • De Santoli, Livio

Abstract

Nowadays, wind and solar power generation have a major impact in many microgrid hybrid energy systems based on their cost and pollution. On the other hand, accurate forecasting of wind and solar power generation is very important for energy management in microgrids. Therefore, a novel prediction interval model, consisting of several sections (wavelet transform, hybrid feature selection, Group Method of Data Handling neural network, and modified multi-objective fruit fly optimization algorithm), has been developed to short-term predict wind speed and solar irradiation and to investigate the energy consumption of microgrids. The renewables prediction and the energy consumption analysis have been applied to the Favignana island microgrid, in the south of Italy, using the new proposed point forecast model (Group Method of Data Handling neural network and modified fruit fly optimization algorithm – GMDHMFOA) and a Pareto analysis. The results show that the proposed interval prediction model has a good performance in different confidence levels (95%, 90%, and 85%) to predict wind speed and solar irradiation than other already existing methods. In addition, the proposed point forecast model (GMDHMFOA) has an acceptable error and better performance than the other ones commonly used in predicting energy consumption. Lastly, the monthly energy consumption in different stations of the microgrid can be predicted by using the proposed model and provides suitable solutions for energy management of the microgrid.

Suggested Citation

  • Heydari, Azim & Astiaso Garcia, Davide & Keynia, Farshid & Bisegna, Fabio & De Santoli, Livio, 2019. "A novel composite neural network based method for wind and solar power forecasting in microgrids," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:251:y:2019:i:c:79
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.113353
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030626191931027X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.113353?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cheng, William Y.Y. & Liu, Yubao & Bourgeois, Alfred J. & Wu, Yonghui & Haupt, Sue Ellen, 2017. "Short-term wind forecast of a data assimilation/weather forecasting system with wind turbine anemometer measurement assimilation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 340-351.
    2. Naik, Jyotirmayee & Dash, Pradipta Kishore & Dhar, Snehamoy, 2019. "A multi-objective wind speed and wind power prediction interval forecasting using variational modes decomposition based Multi-kernel robust ridge regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 701-731.
    3. Bouzgou, Hassen & Gueymard, Christian A., 2019. "Fast short-term global solar irradiance forecasting with wrapper mutual information," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 1055-1065.
    4. Hong, Wei-Chiang, 2011. "Electric load forecasting by seasonal recurrent SVR (support vector regression) with chaotic artificial bee colony algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 5568-5578.
    5. Jiang, Ping & Yang, Hufang & Heng, Jiani, 2019. "A hybrid forecasting system based on fuzzy time series and multi-objective optimization for wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 786-801.
    6. Akarslan, Emre & Hocaoglu, Fatih Onur & Edizkan, Rifat, 2018. "Novel short term solar irradiance forecasting models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 58-66.
    7. Song, Jingjing & Wang, Jianzhou & Lu, Haiyan, 2018. "A novel combined model based on advanced optimization algorithm for short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 643-658.
    8. Ghofrani, M. & Ghayekhloo, M. & Arabali, A. & Ghayekhloo, A., 2015. "A hybrid short-term load forecasting with a new input selection framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 777-786.
    9. Shaghaghi, Saba & Bonakdari, Hossein & Gholami, Azadeh & Ebtehaj, Isa & Zeinolabedini, Maryam, 2017. "Comparative analysis of GMDH neural network based on genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization in stable channel design," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 313(C), pages 271-286.
    10. Liu, Hui & Duan, Zhu & Li, Yanfei & Lu, Haibo, 2018. "A novel ensemble model of different mother wavelets for wind speed multi-step forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1783-1800.
    11. Li, Ranran & Jin, Yu, 2018. "A wind speed interval prediction system based on multi-objective optimization for machine learning method," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 2207-2220.
    12. Yang, Zhongshan & Wang, Jian, 2018. "A hybrid forecasting approach applied in wind speed forecasting based on a data processing strategy and an optimized artificial intelligence algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 87-100.
    13. Ait Maatallah, Othman & Achuthan, Ajit & Janoyan, Kerop & Marzocca, Pier, 2015. "Recursive wind speed forecasting based on Hammerstein Auto-Regressive model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 191-197.
    14. Yang, Zhongshan & Wang, Jian, 2018. "A combination forecasting approach applied in multistep wind speed forecasting based on a data processing strategy and an optimized artificial intelligence algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 1108-1125.
    15. Sigauke, C. & Chikobvu, D., 2011. "Prediction of daily peak electricity demand in South Africa using volatility forecasting models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 882-888, September.
    16. Naik, Jyotirmayee & Bisoi, Ranjeeta & Dash, P.K., 2018. "Prediction interval forecasting of wind speed and wind power using modes decomposition based low rank multi-kernel ridge regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 129(PA), pages 357-383.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Hui & Chen, Chao, 2019. "Data processing strategies in wind energy forecasting models and applications: A comprehensive review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C), pages 392-408.
    2. Lu, Peng & Ye, Lin & Zhao, Yongning & Dai, Binhua & Pei, Ming & Tang, Yong, 2021. "Review of meta-heuristic algorithms for wind power prediction: Methodologies, applications and challenges," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    3. Yechi Zhang & Jianzhou Wang & Haiyan Lu, 2019. "Research and Application of a Novel Combined Model Based on Multiobjective Optimization for Multistep-Ahead Electric Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-27, May.
    4. Zhou, Qingguo & Wang, Chen & Zhang, Gaofeng, 2019. "Hybrid forecasting system based on an optimal model selection strategy for different wind speed forecasting problems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 1559-1580.
    5. Liu, Hui & Chen, Chao, 2019. "Multi-objective data-ensemble wind speed forecasting model with stacked sparse autoencoder and adaptive decomposition-based error correction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    6. Liu, Hui & Duan, Zhu & Chen, Chao, 2020. "Wind speed big data forecasting using time-variant multi-resolution ensemble model with clustering auto-encoder," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    7. Wang, Yun & Zou, Runmin & Liu, Fang & Zhang, Lingjun & Liu, Qianyi, 2021. "A review of wind speed and wind power forecasting with deep neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    8. Lu, Hongfang & Ma, Xin & Huang, Kun & Azimi, Mohammadamin, 2020. "Prediction of offshore wind farm power using a novel two-stage model combining kernel-based nonlinear extension of the Arps decline model with a multi-objective grey wolf optimizer," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    9. Jin, Huaiping & Shi, Lixian & Chen, Xiangguang & Qian, Bin & Yang, Biao & Jin, Huaikang, 2021. "Probabilistic wind power forecasting using selective ensemble of finite mixture Gaussian process regression models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 1-18.
    10. Liu, Zhenkun & Jiang, Ping & Zhang, Lifang & Niu, Xinsong, 2020. "A combined forecasting model for time series: Application to short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    11. Li, Yanfei & Shi, Huipeng & Han, Fengze & Duan, Zhu & Liu, Hui, 2019. "Smart wind speed forecasting approach using various boosting algorithms, big multi-step forecasting strategy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 540-553.
    12. Ahmed, R. & Sreeram, V. & Mishra, Y. & Arif, M.D., 2020. "A review and evaluation of the state-of-the-art in PV solar power forecasting: Techniques and optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    13. Zhang, Shuai & Chen, Yong & Xiao, Jiuhong & Zhang, Wenyu & Feng, Ruijun, 2021. "Hybrid wind speed forecasting model based on multivariate data secondary decomposition approach and deep learning algorithm with attention mechanism," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 688-704.
    14. Jianzhou Wang & Chunying Wu & Tong Niu, 2019. "A Novel System for Wind Speed Forecasting Based on Multi-Objective Optimization and Echo State Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-34, January.
    15. Lv, Sheng-Xiang & Wang, Lin, 2022. "Deep learning combined wind speed forecasting with hybrid time series decomposition and multi-objective parameter optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    16. Taiyong Li & Yingrui Zhou & Xinsheng Li & Jiang Wu & Ting He, 2019. "Forecasting Daily Crude Oil Prices Using Improved CEEMDAN and Ridge Regression-Based Predictors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-25, September.
    17. Niu, Xinsong & Wang, Jiyang, 2019. "A combined model based on data preprocessing strategy and multi-objective optimization algorithm for short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C), pages 519-539.
    18. Duan, Jikai & Zuo, Hongchao & Bai, Yulong & Duan, Jizheng & Chang, Mingheng & Chen, Bolong, 2021. "Short-term wind speed forecasting using recurrent neural networks with error correction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    19. Liu, Hui & Duan, Zhu, 2020. "A vanishing moment ensemble model for wind speed multi-step prediction with multi-objective base model selection," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    20. Liu, Hui & Yang, Rui & Wang, Tiantian & Zhang, Lei, 2021. "A hybrid neural network model for short-term wind speed forecasting based on decomposition, multi-learner ensemble, and adaptive multiple error corrections," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(P1), pages 573-594.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:251:y:2019:i:c:79. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.