IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v137y2015icp823-831.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stochastic control and real options valuation of thermal storage-enabled demand response from flexible district energy systems

Author

Listed:
  • Kitapbayev, Yerkin
  • Moriarty, John
  • Mancarella, Pierluigi

Abstract

In district energy systems powered by Combined Heat and Power (CHP) plants, thermal storage can significantly increase CHP flexibility to respond to real time market signals and therefore improve the business case of such demand response schemes in a Smart Grid environment. However, main challenges remain as to what is the optimal way to control inter-temporal storage operation in the presence of uncertain market prices, and then how to value the investment into storage as flexibility enabler. In this outlook, the aim of this paper is to propose a model for optimal and dynamic control and long term valuation of CHP-thermal storage in the presence of uncertain market prices. The proposed model is formulated as a stochastic control problem and numerically solved through Least Squares Monte Carlo regression analysis, with integrated investment and operational timescale analysis equivalent to real options valuation models encountered in finance. Outputs are represented by clear and interpretable feedback control strategy maps for each hour of the day, thus suitable for real time demand response under uncertainty. Numerical applications to a realistic UK case study with projected market gas and electricity prices exemplify the proposed approach and quantify the robustness of the selected storage solutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Kitapbayev, Yerkin & Moriarty, John & Mancarella, Pierluigi, 2015. "Stochastic control and real options valuation of thermal storage-enabled demand response from flexible district energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 823-831.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:137:y:2015:i:c:p:823-831
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.07.019
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261914007004
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.07.019?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mancarella, Pierluigi, 2014. "MES (multi-energy systems): An overview of concepts and evaluation models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-17.
    2. Carpaneto, Enrico & Chicco, Gianfranco & Mancarella, Pierluigi & Russo, Angela, 2011. "Cogeneration planning under uncertainty: Part I: Multiple time frame approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(4), pages 1059-1067, April.
    3. Capuder, Tomislav & Mancarella, Pierluigi, 2014. "Techno-economic and environmental modelling and optimization of flexible distributed multi-generation options," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 516-533.
    4. Carpaneto, Enrico & Chicco, Gianfranco & Mancarella, Pierluigi & Russo, Angela, 2011. "Cogeneration planning under uncertainty. Part II: Decision theory-based assessment of planning alternatives," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(4), pages 1075-1083, April.
    5. Fragaki, Aikaterini & Andersen, Anders N., 2011. "Conditions for aggregation of CHP plants in the UK electricity market and exploration of plant size," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(11), pages 3930-3940.
    6. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt43n1k4jb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    7. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 113-147.
    8. Rene Carmona & Michael Ludkovski, 2010. "Valuation of energy storage: an optimal switching approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 359-374.
    9. Chicco, Gianfranco & Mancarella, Pierluigi, 2009. "Distributed multi-generation: A comprehensive view," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 535-551, April.
    10. Rolfsman, Björn, 2004. "Combined heat-and-power plants and district heating in a deregulated electricity market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 37-52, May.
    11. Fragaki, Aikaterini & Andersen, Anders N. & Toke, David, 2008. "Exploration of economical sizing of gas engine and thermal store for combined heat and power plants in the UK," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1659-1670.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Capuder, Tomislav & Mancarella, Pierluigi, 2014. "Techno-economic and environmental modelling and optimization of flexible distributed multi-generation options," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 516-533.
    2. Schachter, J.A. & Mancarella, P., 2016. "A critical review of Real Options thinking for valuing investment flexibility in Smart Grids and low carbon energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 261-271.
    3. Sayegh, M.A. & Danielewicz, J. & Nannou, T. & Miniewicz, M. & Jadwiszczak, P. & Piekarska, K. & Jouhara, H., 2017. "Trends of European research and development in district heating technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P2), pages 1183-1192.
    4. Pina, Eduardo A. & Lozano, Miguel A. & Serra, Luis M., 2018. "Thermoeconomic cost allocation in simple trigeneration systems including thermal energy storage," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 170-184.
    5. Hanfeld, Marc & Schlüter, Stephan, 2016. "Operating a swing option on today's gas markets: How least squares Monte Carlo works and why it is beneficial," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 10/2016, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    6. Nemat Safarov & Colin Atkinson, 2017. "Natural Gas-Fired Power Plants Valuation And Optimization Under Lévy Copulas And Regime Switching," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(01), pages 1-38, February.
    7. Bastian Felix, 2012. "Gas Storage Valuation: A Comparative Simulation Study," EWL Working Papers 1201, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Apr 2014.
    8. Alessandro Balata & Michael Ludkovski & Aditya Maheshwari & Jan Palczewski, 2019. "Statistical Learning for Probability-Constrained Stochastic Optimal Control," Papers 1905.00107, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
    9. Moghaddam, Iman Gerami & Saniei, Mohsen & Mashhour, Elaheh, 2016. "A comprehensive model for self-scheduling an energy hub to supply cooling, heating and electrical demands of a building," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 157-170.
    10. Nemat Safarov & Colin Atkinson, 2016. "Natural gas-fired power plants valuation and optimisation under Levy copulas and regime-switching," Papers 1607.01207, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2016.
    11. Fabozzi, Frank J. & Paletta, Tommaso & Tunaru, Radu, 2017. "An improved least squares Monte Carlo valuation method based on heteroscedasticity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 263(2), pages 698-706.
    12. Mavromatidis, Georgios & Orehounig, Kristina & Carmeliet, Jan, 2018. "A review of uncertainty characterisation approaches for the optimal design of distributed energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 258-277.
    13. W. Ackooij & X. Warin, 2020. "On conditional cuts for stochastic dual dynamic programming," EURO Journal on Computational Optimization, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 8(2), pages 173-199, June.
    14. Trotter, Ian M. & Gomes, Marília Fernandes Maciel & Braga, Marcelo José & Brochmann, Bjørn & Lie, Ole Nikolai, 2016. "Optimal LNG (liquefied natural gas) regasification scheduling for import terminals with storage," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 80-88.
    15. Pini Prato, Alessandro & Strobino, Fabrizio & Broccardo, Marco & Parodi Giusino, Luigi, 2012. "Integrated management of cogeneration plants and district heating networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 590-600.
    16. Mancarella, Pierluigi, 2014. "MES (multi-energy systems): An overview of concepts and evaluation models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-17.
    17. Haas, J. & Cebulla, F. & Cao, K. & Nowak, W. & Palma-Behnke, R. & Rahmann, C. & Mancarella, P., 2017. "Challenges and trends of energy storage expansion planning for flexibility provision in low-carbon power systems – a review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 603-619.
    18. Balata, Alessandro & Ludkovski, Michael & Maheshwari, Aditya & Palczewski, Jan, 2021. "Statistical learning for probability-constrained stochastic optimal control," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(2), pages 640-656.
    19. Liu, Xuezhi & Mancarella, Pierluigi, 2016. "Modelling, assessment and Sankey diagrams of integrated electricity-heat-gas networks in multi-vector district energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 336-352.
    20. Nadarajah, Selvaprabu & Margot, François & Secomandi, Nicola, 2017. "Comparison of least squares Monte Carlo methods with applications to energy real options," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(1), pages 196-204.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:137:y:2015:i:c:p:823-831. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.