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Cogeneration planning under uncertainty. Part II: Decision theory-based assessment of planning alternatives

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  • Carpaneto, Enrico
  • Chicco, Gianfranco
  • Mancarella, Pierluigi
  • Russo, Angela
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    Abstract

    This paper discusses specific models and analyses to select the best cogeneration planning solution in the presence of uncertainties on a long-term time scale, completing the approach formulated in the companion paper (Part I). The most convenient solutions are identified among a pre-defined set of planning alternatives according to decision theory-based criteria, upon definition of weighted scenarios and by using the exceeding probabilities of suitable economic indicators as decision variables. Application of the criteria to a real energy system with various technological alternatives operated under different control strategies is illustrated and discussed. The results obtained show that using the Net Present Cost indicator it is always possible to apply the decision theory concepts to select the best planning alternative. Other economic indicators like Discounted Payback Period and Internal Rate of Return exhibit possible application limits for cogeneration planning within the decision theory framework.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Applied Energy.

    Volume (Year): 88 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 4 (April)
    Pages: 1075-1083

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:88:y:2011:i:4:p:1075-1083

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    Related research

    Keywords: Cogeneration planning Decision theory Internal combustion engines Microturbines Uncertainty modeling Weighted regret criterion;

    References

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    1. Al-Mansour, Fouad & Kožuh, Mitja, 2007. "Risk analysis for CHP decision making within the conditions of an open electricity market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 1905-1916.
    2. Kaikko, Juha & Backman, Jari, 2007. "Technical and economic performance analysis for a microturbine in combined heat and power generation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 378-387.
    3. Matos, Manuel A., 2007. "Decision under risk as a multicriteria problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 181(3), pages 1516-1529, September.
    4. Chicco, Gianfranco & Mancarella, Pierluigi, 2009. "Distributed multi-generation: A comprehensive view," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 535-551, April.
    5. Siddiqui, Afzal S. & Maribu, Karl, 2009. "Investment and upgrade in distributed generation under uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 25-37, January.
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    Cited by:
    1. Luo, Xianglong & Zhang, Bingjian & Chen, Ying & Mo, Songping, 2013. "Operational planning optimization of steam power plants considering equipment failure in petrochemical complex," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1247-1264.
    2. Guido Carpinelli & Anna Rita di Fazio & Shahab Khormali & Fabio Mottola, 2014. "Optimal Sizing of Battery Storage Systems for Industrial Applications when Uncertainties Exist," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(1), pages 130-149, January.

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