Cogeneration planning under uncertainty. Part II: Decision theory-based assessment of planning alternatives
AbstractThis paper discusses specific models and analyses to select the best cogeneration planning solution in the presence of uncertainties on a long-term time scale, completing the approach formulated in the companion paper (Part I). The most convenient solutions are identified among a pre-defined set of planning alternatives according to decision theory-based criteria, upon definition of weighted scenarios and by using the exceeding probabilities of suitable economic indicators as decision variables. Application of the criteria to a real energy system with various technological alternatives operated under different control strategies is illustrated and discussed. The results obtained show that using the Net Present Cost indicator it is always possible to apply the decision theory concepts to select the best planning alternative. Other economic indicators like Discounted Payback Period and Internal Rate of Return exhibit possible application limits for cogeneration planning within the decision theory framework.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Applied Energy.
Volume (Year): 88 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (April)
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description
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- Siddiqui, Afzal S. & Maribu, Karl, 2009. "Investment and upgrade in distributed generation under uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 25-37, January.
- Matos, Manuel A., 2007. "Decision under risk as a multicriteria problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 181(3), pages 1516-1529, September.
- Chicco, Gianfranco & Mancarella, Pierluigi, 2009. "Distributed multi-generation: A comprehensive view," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 535-551, April.
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