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Assessing the dynamic material criticality of infrastructure transitions: A case of low carbon electricity

Author

Listed:
  • Roelich, Katy
  • Dawson, David A.
  • Purnell, Phil
  • Knoeri, Christof
  • Revell, Ruairi
  • Busch, Jonathan
  • Steinberger, Julia K.

Abstract

Decarbonisation of existing infrastructure systems requires a dynamic roll-out of technology at an unprecedented scale. The potential disruption in supply of critical materials could endanger such a transition to low-carbon infrastructure and, by extension, compromise energy security more broadly because low carbon technologies are reliant on these materials in a way that fossil-fuelled energy infrastructure is not. Criticality is currently defined as the combination of the potential for supply disruption and the exposure of a system of interest to that disruption. We build on this definition and develop a dynamic approach to quantifying criticality, which monitors the change in criticality during the transition towards a low-carbon infrastructure goal. This allows us to assess the relative risk of different technology pathways to reach a particular goal and reduce the probability of being ‘locked in’ to currently attractive but potentially future-critical technologies. To demonstrate, we apply our method to criticality of the proposed UK electricity system transition, with a focus on neodymium. We anticipate that the supply disruption potential of neodymium will decrease by almost 30% by 2050; however, our results show the criticality of low carbon electricity production increases ninefold over this period, as a result of increasing exposure to neodymium-reliant technologies.

Suggested Citation

  • Roelich, Katy & Dawson, David A. & Purnell, Phil & Knoeri, Christof & Revell, Ruairi & Busch, Jonathan & Steinberger, Julia K., 2014. "Assessing the dynamic material criticality of infrastructure transitions: A case of low carbon electricity," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 378-386.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:123:y:2014:i:c:p:378-386
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.01.052
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    References listed on IDEAS

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