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Application of a Bayesian network modelling approach to predict the cascading effects of COVID-19 restrictions on the planting activities of smallholder farmers in Uganda

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  • Semakula, Henry Musoke
  • Liang, Song
  • Mukwaya, Paul Isolo
  • Mugagga, Frank

Abstract

There are rising concerns over the cascading effects induced by COVID-19 restrictions on the planting activities of smallholder farmers in low and middle-income countries, which may become a non-negligible threat to the long-term food security. Studies that utilize probability based models to examine the effects of COVID-19 restrictions on planting activities of smallholder farmers are scare, with no available evidence on Uganda. Yet these effects do not act in isolation, and are known to be complex, stochastic, nonlinear, and multidimensional.

Suggested Citation

  • Semakula, Henry Musoke & Liang, Song & Mukwaya, Paul Isolo & Mugagga, Frank, 2023. "Application of a Bayesian network modelling approach to predict the cascading effects of COVID-19 restrictions on the planting activities of smallholder farmers in Uganda," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:211:y:2023:i:c:s0308521x23001385
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2023.103733
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    References listed on IDEAS

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