IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agisys/v173y2019icp254-267.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Soybean-maize off-season double crop system in Brazil as affected by El Niño Southern Oscillation phases

Author

Listed:
  • Nóia Júnior, Rogério de Souza
  • Sentelhas, Paulo Cesar

Abstract

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important atmospheric-oceanic phenomena, responsible for climate variability in several Brazilian regions, which affects agriculture, mainly soybean – maize off-season succession. Therefore, the ENSO impacts on soybean – maize off-season double crop system can affect global food security, since Brazil is a major player as producer of these two crops, with a total production that represents 27% and 6% of world's soybean and maize production, respectively. In order to understand the risks associated to this crop system, the aim of this study was to assess the influence of ENSO phenomenon on the spatial and temporal soybean and maize off-season yield variabilities, considering simulations with three different crop models (FAO-AZM, DSSAT and APSIM) in a multi-model approach, and to determine the best sowing windows for this production system for each ENSO phase (El Niño, La Niña and Neutral) in different Brazilian producing regions. Previously calibrated and validated models were used to simulate soybean yields for 29 locations in 12 states, with sowing dates ranging from late September to early January of each growing season for a period of 34 years (1980–2013). The maize off-season sowing was done just after the soybean harvest, ranging from late January to early May. ENSO phases affected soybean and maize yields across the country, which can be minimized by choosing the best sowing window for soybean. In northern Brazil, El Niño negatively impacts soybean and maize off-season yields, making the succession of these crops risk, with the best sowing window being very short. Similar result was found for southern and central Brazil during La Niña years. On the contrary, cropping soybean and maize off-season in succession during El Niño years in center-south of and during La Niña years up north have higher chances of success.

Suggested Citation

  • Nóia Júnior, Rogério de Souza & Sentelhas, Paulo Cesar, 2019. "Soybean-maize off-season double crop system in Brazil as affected by El Niño Southern Oscillation phases," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 254-267.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:173:y:2019:i:c:p:254-267
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2019.03.012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X18312691
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agsy.2019.03.012?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Toshichika Iizumi & Jing-Jia Luo & Andrew J. Challinor & Gen Sakurai & Masayuki Yokozawa & Hirofumi Sakuma & Molly E. Brown & Toshio Yamagata, 2014. "Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the global yields of major crops," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 1-7, September.
    2. Rosmeri Rocha & Michelle Reboita & Lívia Dutra & Marta Llopart & Erika Coppola, 2014. "Interannual variability associated with ENSO: present and future climate projections of RegCM4 for South America-CORDEX domain," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(1), pages 95-109, July.
    3. Rao, N. H. & Sarma, P. B. S. & Chander, Subhash, 1988. "A simple dated water-production function for use in irrigated agriculture," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 25-32, April.
    4. da S. Andrea, Maria Carolina & Boote, Kenneth J. & Sentelhas, Paulo C. & Romanelli, Thiago L., 2018. "Variability and limitations of maize production in Brazil: Potential yield, water-limited yield and yield gaps," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 264-273.
    5. S. Asseng & F. Ewert & C. Rosenzweig & J. W. Jones & J. L. Hatfield & A. C. Ruane & K. J. Boote & P. J. Thorburn & R. P. Rötter & D. Cammarano & N. Brisson & B. Basso & P. Martre & P. K. Aggarwal & C., 2013. "Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(9), pages 827-832, September.
    6. Henry Kaiser, 1974. "An index of factorial simplicity," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 39(1), pages 31-36, March.
    7. Deng, Xi-Ping & Shan, Lun & Zhang, Heping & Turner, Neil C., 2006. "Improving agricultural water use efficiency in arid and semiarid areas of China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 80(1-3), pages 23-40, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Batista, Fabiana de Souza & Duku, Confidence & Hein, Lars, 2023. "Deforestation-induced changes in rainfall decrease soybean-maize yields in Brazil," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 486(C).
    2. Cao, Juan & Zhang, Zhao & Tao, Fulu & Chen, Yi & Luo, Xiangzhong & Xie, Jun, 2023. "Forecasting global crop yields based on El Nino Southern Oscillation early signals," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    3. Nóia Júnior, Rogério de Souza & Fraisse, Clyde W. & Bashyal, Mahesh & Mulvaney, Michael J. & Seepaul, Ramdeo & Zientarski Karrei, Mauricio A. & Iboyi, Joseph Enye & Perondi, Daniel & Cerbaro, Vinicius, 2022. "Brassica carinata as an off-season crop in the southeastern USA: Determining optimum sowing dates based on climate risks and potential effects on summer crop yield," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    4. Rizzo, Gonzalo & Mazzilli, Sebastian R. & Ernst, Oswaldo & Baethgen, Walter E. & Berger, Andres G., 2022. "Season-specific management strategies for rainfed soybean in the South American Pampas based on a seasonal precipitation forecast," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    5. Battisti, Rafael & Ferreira, Marcelo Dias Paes & Tavares, Érica Basílio & Knapp, Fábio Miguel & Bender, Fabiani Denise & Casaroli, Derblai & Alves Júnior, José, 2020. "Rules for grown soybean-maize cropping system in Midwestern Brazil: Food production and economic profits," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Huan & Pequeno, Diego N.L. & Hernández-Ochoa, Ixchel M. & Krupnik, Timothy J. & Sonder, Kai & Xiong, Wei & Xu, Yinlong, 2020. "A consistent calibration across three wheat models to simulate wheat yield and phenology in China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 430(C).
    2. Lillemo, Shuling Chen, 2014. "Measuring the effect of procrastination and environmental awareness on households' energy-saving behaviours: An empirical approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 249-256.
    3. Xiaoxu Dong & Huawei Zhao & Tiancai Li, 2022. "The Role of Live-Streaming E-Commerce on Consumers’ Purchasing Intention regarding Green Agricultural Products," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-13, April.
    4. Nicolas Legrand, 2023. "War in Ukraine: The rational “wait‐and‐see” mode of global food markets," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 626-644, June.
    5. Simplice A. Asongu & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "Governance, capital flight and industrialisation in Africa," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-22, December.
    6. Pamela E. Ofori & Simplice A. Asongu & Vanessa S. Tchamyou, 2021. "The Synergy between Governance and Economic Integration in Promoting Female Economic Inclusion in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 21/071, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    7. Simplice A. Asongu, 2014. "Knowledge Economy and Financial Sector Competition in African Countries," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 26(2), pages 333-346, June.
    8. Cao, Juan & Zhang, Zhao & Tao, Fulu & Chen, Yi & Luo, Xiangzhong & Xie, Jun, 2023. "Forecasting global crop yields based on El Nino Southern Oscillation early signals," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    9. Chimere O. Iheonu, 2019. "Governance and Domestic Investment in Africa," Working Papers 19/001, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    10. Yang, Danni & Li, Sien & Kang, Shaozhong & Du, Taisheng & Guo, Ping & Mao, Xiaomin & Tong, Ling & Hao, Xinmei & Ding, Risheng & Niu, Jun, 2020. "Effect of drip irrigation on wheat evapotranspiration, soil evaporation and transpiration in Northwest China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    11. Rodríguez-Fuentes, Carlos Javier & Hernández-López, Montserrat, 1997. "Análisis de diferencias estructurales interregionales determinantes en el impacto de la política monetaria," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 7, pages 141-157, Junio.
    12. Asongu, Simplice & Tchamyou, Vanessa & Asongu, Ndemaze & Tchamyou, Nina, 2018. "The Comparative African Economics of Governance in Fighting Terrorism," MPRA Paper 92346, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Wang, Linlin & Li, Qiang & Coulter, Jeffrey A. & Xie, Junhong & Luo, Zhuzhu & Zhang, Renzhi & Deng, Xiping & Li, Linglin, 2020. "Winter wheat yield and water use efficiency response to organic fertilization in northern China: A meta-analysis," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    14. Leiv Gabrielsen & Pål Ulleberg & Reidulf Watten, 2012. "The Adolescent Life Goal Profile Scale: Development of a New Scale for Measurements of Life Goals Among Young People," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 13(6), pages 1053-1072, December.
    15. Simplice A. Asongu & Rexon T. Nting & Joseph Nnanna, 2020. "Linkages between Globalisation, Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Governance in Sub-Saharan Africa," International Journal of Public Administration, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(11), pages 949-963, August.
    16. Simplice A Asongu, 2013. "Modeling the future of knowledge economy: evidence from SSA and MENA countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 612-624.
    17. Megha Gupta & Suhasini Verma & Smita Pachare, 2023. "An analysis of Conventional and Alternative financing—Customers' perspective," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2404-2414, July.
    18. Xiangfei Yuan & Haijing Hao & Chenghua Guan & Alex Pentland, 2022. "Which factors affect the performance of technology business incubators in China? An entrepreneurial ecosystem perspective," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(1), pages 1-20, January.
    19. Naznin Sultana & Thao T. P. Nguyen & Ahmed Hossain & Md. Asaduzzaman & Minh H. Nguyen & Ishrat Jahan & Kien T. Nguyen & Tuyen Van Duong, 2022. "Psychometric Properties of the Short-Form Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-SF) and Its Associated Factors among the Elderly in Bangladesh," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-14, June.
    20. Keikha, Mahdi & Darzi- Naftchali, Abdullah & Motevali, Ali & Valipour, Mohammad, 2023. "Effect of nitrogen management on the environmental and economic sustainability of wheat production in different climates," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:173:y:2019:i:c:p:254-267. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.