IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agisys/v103y2010i3p127-136.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Potential benefits of early vigor and changes in phenology in wheat to adapt to warmer and drier climates

Author

Listed:
  • Ludwig, Fulco
  • Asseng, Senthold

Abstract

Developing crop cultivars with novel traits could help agriculture adapt to climate change. As introducing new traits into crops is expensive and time consuming, it is helpful to develop methods which can test whether a potential new plant trait increases or maintains production in future climates. We used a crop-soil simulation model (APSIM-Nwheat) to test whether changes in physiological traits, related to early vigor and flowering time, would result in increased yield when compared to traditional cultivars of wheat grown at higher temperatures, elevated atmospheric CO2 and lower rainfall in a Mediterranean climate. Early vigor was simulated by changing four different plant traits. The impact of each trait on grain yield varied with climate scenario and soil type. Higher specific leaf area had minimal effect on yield for the historical climate, but it could increase production in future warmer climates. Increased rooting depth generally had a positive impact on yield, while lower radiation use efficiency and earlier flowering tended to reduce yield. The interaction between these traits was generally positive, and our results indicate that early vigor may improve yield for a range of future climate scenarios. However, in the low rainfall regions, early vigor is unlikely to compensate for rainfall reductions of [greater-or-equal, slanted]30%. Yield gains for early vigor are likely to be larger on sandy loam than on heavier clay soil. The simulation of cultivars differing in flowering time showed that in drier climates earlier flowering cultivars increase potential yield while in warming climates later cultivars increase yield. In conclusion, our analyses suggest that there is great potential for adapting wheat systems to climate change by introducing cultivars with new traits. Our results also show how simulation analyses can assist plant breeders in determining which traits could be important for crop production in future climates.

Suggested Citation

  • Ludwig, Fulco & Asseng, Senthold, 2010. "Potential benefits of early vigor and changes in phenology in wheat to adapt to warmer and drier climates," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 127-136, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:103:y:2010:i:3:p:127-136
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308-521X(09)00109-7
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ludwig, Fulco & Asseng, Senthold, 2006. "Climate change impacts on wheat production in a Mediterranean environment in Western Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 90(1-3), pages 159-179, October.
    2. Fulco Ludwig & Stephen Milroy & Senthold Asseng, 2009. "Impacts of recent climate change on wheat production systems in Western Australia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(3), pages 495-517, February.
    3. Mike Hulme & Elaine M. Barrow & Nigel W. Arnell & Paula A. Harrison & Timothy C. Johns & Thomas E. Downing, 1999. "Relative impacts of human-induced climate change and natural climate variability," Nature, Nature, vol. 397(6721), pages 688-691, February.
    4. Richter, G.M. & Semenov, M.A., 2005. "Modelling impacts of climate change on wheat yields in England and Wales: assessing drought risks," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 77-97, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. De Li Liu & Garry J. O’Leary & Brendan Christy & Ian Macadam & Bin Wang & Muhuddin R. Anwar & Anna Weeks, 2017. "Effects of different climate downscaling methods on the assessment of climate change impacts on wheat cropping systems," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(4), pages 687-701, October.
    2. Senthold Asseng & David Pannell, 2013. "Adapting dryland agriculture to climate change: Farming implications and research and development needs in Western Australia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(2), pages 167-181, May.
    3. Jaime Gaona & Pilar Benito-Verdugo & José Martínez-Fernández & Ángel González-Zamora & Laura Almendra-Martín & Carlos Miguel Herrero-Jiménez, 2022. "Soil Moisture Outweighs Climatic Factors in Critical Periods for Rainfed Cereal Yields: An Analysis in Spain," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-22, April.
    4. Ghanem, Michel Edmond & Marrou, Hélène & Biradar, Chandrashekhar & Sinclair, Thomas R., 2015. "Production potential of Lentil (Lens culinaris Medik.) in East Africa," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 24-38.
    5. Kleinwechter, Ulrich & Gastelo, Manuel & Ritchie, Joe & Nelson, Gerald & Asseng, Senthold, 2016. "Simulating cultivar variations in potato yields for contrasting environments," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 51-63.
    6. Anwar, Muhuddin Rajin & Liu, De Li & Farquharson, Robert & Macadam, Ian & Abadi, Amir & Finlayson, John & Wang, Bin & Ramilan, Thiagarajah, 2015. "Climate change impacts on phenology and yields of five broadacre crops at four climatologically distinct locations in Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 133-144.
    7. Mehdi JOUDI & Wim VAN DEN ENDE, 2018. "Genotypic variation in pre- and post-anthesis dry matter remobilization in Iranian wheat cultivars: associations with stem characters and grain yield," Czech Journal of Genetics and Plant Breeding, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 54(3), pages 123-134.
    8. A. Potgieter & H. Meinke & A. Doherty & V. Sadras & G. Hammer & S. Crimp & D. Rodriguez, 2013. "Spatial impact of projected changes in rainfall and temperature on wheat yields in Australia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(1), pages 163-179, March.
    9. Wang, Bin & Feng, Puyu & Chen, Chao & Liu, De Li & Waters, Cathy & Yu, Qiang, 2019. "Designing wheat ideotypes to cope with future changing climate in South-Eastern Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 9-18.
    10. Zunfu Lv & Yan Zhu & Xiaojun Liu & Hongbao Ye & Yongchao Tian & Feifei Li, 2018. "Climate change impacts on regional rice production in China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 523-537, April.
    11. Katharina Waha & John Clarke & Kavina Dayal & Mandy Freund & Craig Heady & Irene Parisi & Elisabeth Vogel, 2022. "Past and future rainfall changes in the Australian midlatitudes and implications for agriculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-21, February.
    12. Kothari, Kritika & Ale, Srinivasulu & Attia, Ahmed & Rajan, Nithya & Xue, Qingwu & Munster, Clyde L., 2019. "Potential climate change adaptation strategies for winter wheat production in the Texas High Plains," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    13. He, Pinglin & Zhang, Shuhao & Wang, Lei & Ning, Jing, 2023. "Will environmental taxes help to mitigate climate change? A comparative study based on OECD countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1440-1464.
    14. Sun, Shuang & Yang, Xiaoguang & Lin, Xiaomao & Sassenrath, Gretchen F. & Li, Kenan, 2018. "Climate-smart management can further improve winter wheat yield in China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 10-18.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thamo, Tas & Addai, Donkor & Kragt, Marit E. & Kingwell, Ross S. & Pannell, David J. & Robertson, Michael J., 2019. "Climate change reduces the mitigation obtainable from sequestration in an Australian farming system," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 63(4), October.
    2. Senthold Asseng & David Pannell, 2013. "Adapting dryland agriculture to climate change: Farming implications and research and development needs in Western Australia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(2), pages 167-181, May.
    3. Ahmad, Munir & Nawaz, Muhammad & Iqbal, Muhammad & Javed, Sajid, 2014. "Analysing the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Productivity in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 72861, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. A. Potgieter & H. Meinke & A. Doherty & V. Sadras & G. Hammer & S. Crimp & D. Rodriguez, 2013. "Spatial impact of projected changes in rainfall and temperature on wheat yields in Australia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(1), pages 163-179, March.
    5. Anwar, Muhuddin Rajin & Liu, De Li & Farquharson, Robert & Macadam, Ian & Abadi, Amir & Finlayson, John & Wang, Bin & Ramilan, Thiagarajah, 2015. "Climate change impacts on phenology and yields of five broadacre crops at four climatologically distinct locations in Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 133-144.
    6. Asseng, S. & Dray, A. & Perez, P. & Su, X., 2010. "Rainfall–human–spatial interactions in a salinity-prone agricultural region of the Western Australian wheat-belt," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(5), pages 812-824.
    7. Thamo, Tas & Addai, Donkor & Pannell, David J. & Robertson, Michael J. & Thomas, Dean T. & Young, John M., 2017. "Climate change impacts and farm-level adaptation: Economic analysis of a mixed cropping–livestock system," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 99-108.
    8. Senthold Asseng & Maria Travasso & Fulco Ludwig & Graciela Magrin, 2013. "Has climate change opened new opportunities for wheat cropping in Argentina?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(1), pages 181-196, March.
    9. Ludwig, Fulco & Asseng, Senthold, 2006. "Climate change impacts on wheat production in a Mediterranean environment in Western Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 90(1-3), pages 159-179, October.
    10. Ahmad, Munir & Siftain, Hassan & Iqbal, Muhammad, 2014. "Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Productivity in Pakistan: A District Level Analysis," MPRA Paper 72859, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Shahbaz Bhatti & Sarfraz Hassan & Khalid Mushtaq & Kamran Javed, 2020. "Investigation The Impact Of Climate Change On Productivity Of Cotton: Empirical Evidence From Cotton Zone," Big Data In Agriculture (BDA), Zibeline International Publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 1-4, February.
    12. David O. Yawson & Barry J. Mulholland & Tom Ball & Michael O. Adu & Sushil Mohan & Philip J. White, 2017. "Effect of Climate and Agricultural Land Use Changes on UK Feed Barley Production and Food Security to the 2050s," Land, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-14, October.
    13. Taylor, Chris & Cullen, Brendan & D'Occhio, Michael & Rickards, Lauren & Eckard, Richard, 2018. "Trends in wheat yields under representative climate futures: Implications for climate adaptation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-10.
    14. Li-fang Wang & Juan Chen & Zhou-ping Shangguan, 2015. "Yield Responses of Wheat to Mulching Practices in Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(5), pages 1-15, May.
    15. Xingguo Mo & Ruiping Guo & Suxia Liu & Zhonghui Lin & Shi Hu, 2013. "Impacts of climate change on crop evapotranspiration with ensemble GCM projections in the North China Plain," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 299-312, September.
    16. Ross Kingwell, 2021. "Making Agriculture Carbon Neutral Amid a Changing Climate: The Case of South-Western Australia," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-20, November.
    17. Fulco Ludwig & Stephen Milroy & Senthold Asseng, 2009. "Impacts of recent climate change on wheat production systems in Western Australia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(3), pages 495-517, February.
    18. Andi Syah Putra & Guangji Tong & Didit Okta Pribadi, 2020. "Spatial Analysis of Socio-Economic Driving Factors of Food Expenditure Variation between Provinces in Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-18, February.
    19. Martinsohn, Maria & Hansen, Heiko, 2012. "The Impact of Climate Change on the Economics of Dairy Farming – a Review and Evaluation," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 61(02), pages 1-16, May.
    20. Jing Wang & Feng Fang & Qiang Zhang & Jinsong Wang & Yubi Yao & Wei Wang, 2016. "Risk evaluation of agricultural disaster impacts on food production in southern China by probability density method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(3), pages 1605-1634, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    APSIM Australia CO2 Crop production Global change;

    JEL classification:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:103:y:2010:i:3:p:127-136. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.