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The Analysts’ Forecast of IPO Firms during the Global Financial Crisis

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Author Info

  • Chang-Yi Hsu

    (Department of Industrial and Business Management, Chang Gung University, Taiwan)

  • Jean Yu

    (Department of Banking and Finance, National Chiayi University, Taiwan)

  • Shiow-Ying Wen

    (Department of Industrial and Business Management, Chang Gung University, Taiwan)

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    Abstract

    In this study, we examine the analysts’ behavior in the pre-crisis and post-crisis period for IPO firms in the U.S. from 2005 to 2011. By controlling variables size, the proxy of underpricing, the number of the IPO firms and whether the company is listed on NYSE or NASDAQ, we investigate the forecast error of analyst between pre-crisis and post-crisis period for 2008 global financial crisis. The result shows that analysts in our sample are optimistic, and they would become more optimistic after financial crisis. Conservative analysts would emphasize determinants of variables when valuing IPO firms to make their predictions before financial crisis but only consider the prior-year earnings change after financial crisis. Contrarily, analysts more optimistic notice whether the company is listed on NYSE or NASDAQ before crisis but also consider the factors of debt ratio, firm size and the market trends.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Econjournals in its journal International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues.

    Volume (Year): 3 (2013)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 673-682

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    Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2013-03-10

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    Web page: http://www.econjournals.com

    Related research

    Keywords: IPO; Analysts’ forecast; Financial crisis;

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    References

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    1. Steven X. Zheng & David A. Stangeland, 2007. "IPO Underpricing, Firm Quality, and Analyst Forecasts," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 36(2), pages 1-20, 07.
    2. Rajan, Raghuram & Servaes, Henri, 1997. " Analyst Following of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 507-29, June.
    3. Somnath Das & Re-Jin Guo & Huai Zhang, 2006. "Analysts' Selective Coverage and Subsequent Performance of Newly Public Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1159-1185, 06.
    4. DEDU Vasile & Turcan Ciprian Sebastian & Turcan Radu, 2011. "A Behavioral Approach To The Global Financial Crisis," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 340-346, December.
    5. Harrison Hong & Terence Lim & Jeremy C. Stein, 2000. "Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage, and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 265-295, 02.
    6. Ritter, Jay R, 1984. "The "Hot Issue" Market of 1980," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(2), pages 215-40, April.
    7. Hsuan-Chi Chen & Jay R. Ritter, 2000. "The Seven Percent Solution," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1105-1131, 06.
    8. Frederick Adjei, 2012. "Debt dependence and corporate performance in a financial crisis: evidence from the sub-prime mortgage crisis," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 176-189, January.
    9. Fathi Abid & Nader Naifar, 2006. "The Determinants Of Credit Default Swap Rates: An Explanatory Study," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 23-42.
    10. Roger K. Loh & Mujtaba Mian, 2003. "The Quality of Analysts' Earnings Forecasts During the Asian Crisis: Evidence from Singapore," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5-6), pages 749-770.
    11. Daniel J. Bradley & Bradford D. Jordan & Jay R. Ritter, 2003. "The Quiet Period Goes out with a Bang," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 1-36, 02.
    12. Manuel Sanchez, 2011. "Financial Crises: Prevention, Correction, and Monetary Policy," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 31(3), pages 521-534, Fall.
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