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Looking for a J-shaped development-fertility relationship: Do advances in development really reverse fertility declines?

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  • Fumitaka Furuoka

    ()
    (Universiti Malaysia Sabah)

Abstract

In their article published in the “Nature” journal, Myrskylä et al. (2009) claimed that in highly developed countries development-fertility relationship becomes J-shaped. This means that further advances in economic and social development can reverse declining fertility rates. The present paper employs threshold regression analysis (Hansen 2000) to examine the existence of the proposed J-shaped fertility-development curve. The findings indicate that the threshold value of human development index is 0.777. The threshold regression analysis reveals that in countries with a low human development index higher levels of HDI tend to be associated with lower fertility rates. Likewise, in countries with a high human development index, higher levels of HDI tend to be associated with lower fertility rates, albeit the relationship is weak. Thus, the findings of this study do not support the proposition that advances in development can reverse fertility decline, neither do they confirm the existence of the J-shaped development-fertility relationship.

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File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2009/Volume29/EB-09-V29-I4-P295.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

Volume (Year): 29 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 3067-3074

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Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-09-00739

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  1. Hansen Bruce E., 1997. "Inference in TAR Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, April.
  2. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Rainald Borck, 2011. "Adieu Rabenmutter - The Effect of Culture on Fertility, Female Labour Supply, the Gender Wage Gap and Childcare," CESifo Working Paper Series 3337, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Fumitaka Furuoka, 2010. "The Fertility-Development Relationship in the United States: New Evidence from Threshold Regression Analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(3), pages 1808-1822.
  3. Aoki, Masahiko, 2012. "The Five-Phases of Economic Development and Institutional Evolution in China and Japan," ADBI Working Papers 340, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  4. Lechman, Ewa & Dominiak, Piotr & Okonowicz, Anna, 2014. "Fertility rebound and economic growth. New evidence for 18 countries over the period 1970-2011," MPRA Paper 55104, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Zubin Shroff & Marcia C. Castro, 2011. "The potential impact of intermarriage on the population decline of the Parsis of Mumbai, India," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(17), pages 545-564, August.
  6. Angela Luci & Olivier Thevenon, 2010. "Does economic development drive the fertility rebound in OECD countries?," Working Papers hal-00520948, HAL.
  7. Piotr Dominiak & Ewa Lechman & Anna Okonowicz, 2014. "The Fertility Rebound And Economic Growth. New Evidence For 18 Countries Over The Period 1970-2011," GUT FME Working Paper Series A 23, Faculty of Management and Economics, Gdansk University of Technology.

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