Looking for a J-shaped development-fertility relationship: Do advances in development really reverse fertility declines?
AbstractIn their article published in the “Nature” journal, Myrskylä et al. (2009) claimed that in highly developed countries development-fertility relationship becomes J-shaped. This means that further advances in economic and social development can reverse declining fertility rates. The present paper employs threshold regression analysis (Hansen 2000) to examine the existence of the proposed J-shaped fertility-development curve. The findings indicate that the threshold value of human development index is 0.777. The threshold regression analysis reveals that in countries with a low human development index higher levels of HDI tend to be associated with lower fertility rates. Likewise, in countries with a high human development index, higher levels of HDI tend to be associated with lower fertility rates, albeit the relationship is weak. Thus, the findings of this study do not support the proposition that advances in development can reverse fertility decline, neither do they confirm the existence of the J-shaped development-fertility relationship.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.
Volume (Year): 29 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Contact details of provider:
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hansen, B.E., 1991.
"Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis,"
RCER Working Papers
296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March.
- Hansen Bruce E., 1997.
"Inference in TAR Models,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics,
De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, April.
- Tom Doan, . "THRESHTEST: RATS procedure to perform Hansen's Test for Threshold Break," Statistical Software Components RTS00210, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Piotr Dominiak & Ewa Lechman & Anna Okonowicz, 2014. "The Fertility Rebound And Economic Growth. New Evidence For 18 Countries Over The Period 1970-2011," GUT FME Working Paper Series A 23, Faculty of Management and Economics, Gdansk University of Technology.
- Angela Luci & Olivier Thévenon, 2010.
"Does economic development drive the fertility rebound in oecd countries ?,"
167, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED).
- Angela Luci & Olivier Thevenon, 2010. "Does economic development drive the fertility rebound in OECD countries?," Working Papers hal-00520948, HAL.
- Zubin Shroff & Marcia C. Castro, 2011. "The potential impact of intermarriage on the population decline of the Parsis of Mumbai, India," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(17), pages 545-564, August.
- Aoki, Masahiko, 2012. "The Five-Phases of Economic Development and Institutional Evolution in China and Japan," ADBI Working Papers 340, Asian Development Bank Institute.
- Fumitaka Furuoka, 2010. "The Fertility-Development Relationship in the United States: New Evidence from Threshold Regression Analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(3), pages 1808-1822.
- Lechman, Ewa & Dominiak, Piotr & Okonowicz, Anna, 2014. "Fertility rebound and economic growth. New evidence for 18 countries over the period 1970-2011," MPRA Paper 55104, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Rainald Borck, 2011. "Adieu Rabenmutter - The Effect of Culture on Fertility, Female Labour Supply, the Gender Wage Gap and Childcare," CESifo Working Paper Series 3337, CESifo Group Munich.
- Fertility-development controversy in Wikipedia English ne '')
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (John P. Conley).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.