IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eaa/eerese/v6y2006i6_4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Real State Business Cycle and Real Estate Policies: The Case of Korea

Author

Listed:
  • Kim, k.
  • Suh, s.
  • Feridun, M.

Abstract

By using the rate of change in the price of land, the perception and analysis of determinants of the real estate business cycle, and the appraisal of past real estate policies have been proceeded. Korean real estate business cycle is asymmetric (i.e., the expansion and contraction period of which is 3 - 4 years and 8 - 9 years respectively). Effects of the determinants of real estate business cycles are dependent upon the phase of the cycle. Results of the regression, which explicitly include the quantified real estate policies, indicate that past real estate policies were myopic and very much cycle-dependent. It is also highly probable that pre-emptive policies of fixed rules may stabilize real estate prices more effectively than the past myopic ones. This implies that, in addition to cycle-dependent short-term real estate policies, it might be more desirable to sustain cycle-independent long-term real estate policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, k. & Suh, s. & Feridun, M., 2006. "Real State Business Cycle and Real Estate Policies: The Case of Korea," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(1).
  • Handle: RePEc:eaa:eerese:v:6:y2006:i:6_4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.usc.es/economet/reviews/eers614.pdf
    Download Restriction: No
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brent W. Ambrose & Hugh O. Nourse, 1993. "Factors Influencing Capitalization Rates," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(2), pages 221-238.
    2. Grenadier, Steven R, 1995. "The Persistence of Real Estate Cycles," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 95-119, March.
    3. Waldo L. Born & Stephen A. Pyhrr, 1994. "Real Estate Valuation: The Effect of Market and Property Cycles," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(4), pages 455-486.
    4. Liu, Crocker H & Mei, Jianping, 1992. "The Predictability of Returns on Equity REITs and Their Co-movement with Other Assets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 401-418, December.
    5. Renaud, Bertrand, 1995. "The 1985-94 global real estate cycle : its casues and consequences," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1452, The World Bank.
    6. Glenn R. Mueller & Keith R. Pauley, 1995. "The Effect of Interest-Rate Movements on Real Estate Investment Trusts," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 10(3), pages 319-326.
    7. James R. Webb & Jack H. Rubens, 1988. "The Effect of Alternative Return Measures on Restricted Mixed‐Asset Portfolios," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 16(2), pages 123-137, June.
    8. Crocker H. Liu & Terry V. Grissom & David J. Hartzell, 1990. "The Impact of Market Imperfections on Real Estate Returns and Optimal Investor Portfolios," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(4), pages 453-478, December.
    9. Lynne B. Sagalyn, 1990. "Real Estate Risk and the Business Cycle: Evidence from Security Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 5(2), pages 203-220.
    10. Liu, Crocker H. & Hartzell, David J. & Greig, Wylie & Grissom, Terry V., 1990. "The Integration of the Real Estate Market and the Stock Market: Some Preliminary Evidence," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 261-282, September.
    11. Ricks, R Bruce, 1969. "Imputed Equity Returns on Real Estate Financed with Life Insurance Company Loans," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 24(5), pages 921-937, December.
    12. Terry V. Grissom & James R. DeLisle, 1999. "The Analysis of Real Estate Cycles, Regime Segmentation and Structural Change Using Multiple Indices (or A Multiple Index Analysis of Real Estate Cycles and Structural Change)," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 97-130.
    13. C. F. Sirmans & James R. Webb, 1980. "Expected Equity Returns on Real Estate Financed with Life Insurance Company Loans: 1967–1977," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 8(2), pages 218-228, June.
    14. Thomas E. McCue & John L. Kling, 1994. "Real Estate Returns and the Macroeconomy: Some Empirical Evidence from Real Estate Investment Trust," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(3), pages 277-288.
    15. William W. Alberts, 1962. "Business Cycles, Residential Construction Cycles, and the Mortgage Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70, pages 263-263.
    16. William C. Wheaton, 1999. "Real Estate “Cycles”: Some Fundamentals," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 209-230, June.
    17. Karl L. Guntermann & Richard L. Smith, 1987. "Derivation of Cost of Capital and Equity Rates from Market Data," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 15(2), pages 98-109, June.
    18. Terence Khoo & David Hartzell & Martin Hoesli, 1993. "An Investigation of the Change in Real Estate Investment Trust Betas," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(2), pages 107-130, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bismark Aha & David.M Higgins & Timothy Lee, 2018. "UK Political Cycle and the Effect on National House Prices: An Exploratory Study," ERES eres2018_60, European Real Estate Society (ERES).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thomas C. Chiang & Hooi Hooi Lean & Wing-Keung Wong, 2008. "Do REITs Outperform Stocks and Fixed-Income Assets? New Evidence from Mean-Variance and Stochastic Dominance Approaches," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-40, December.
    2. Ming-Chu Chiang & Tien Foo Sing & I-Chun Tsai, 2017. "Spillover Risks in REITs and other Asset Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 579-604, May.
    3. Coletta Cuono Massimo & Busato Francesco, 2019. "U.S. REITs: A Financial Economics Review as of 2018," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 27(2), pages 20-32, June.
    4. Hui-Na Lin & Wo-Chiang Lee, 2015. "Threshold Effects in the Relationships of REITs and Other Financial Securities in Developed Countries," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(3), pages 426-438, March.
    5. Leon Shilton, 2000. "Random Walks and the Cointegration of the ACLI and NCREIF," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 28(3), pages 435-465.
    6. G. Donald Jud & Daniel T. Winkler, 1995. "The Capitalization Rate of Commercial Properties and Market Returns," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 10(5), pages 509-518.
    7. Joseph L. Pagliari, Jr. & James R. Webb, 1995. "A Fundamental Examination of Securitized and Unsecuritized Real Estate," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 10(4), pages 381-426.
    8. Kuang-Liang Chang & Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Leung, 2011. "Monetary Policy, Term Structure and Asset Return: Comparing REIT, Housing and Stock," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 221-257, July.
    9. Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Asli Yuksel & Aydin Yuksel, 2020. "The US Term Structure and Return Volatility in Global REIT Markets," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 24(3), pages 84-109, September.
    10. Ramzi Tarazi & Mohammad Zahid Hasan, 2019. "The Effect of Economic and Fundamental Factors on the Australian Property Performance," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 15(2), pages 155-184.
    11. Chien‐Yun Chang & Jian‐Hsin Chou & Hung‐Gay Fung, 2012. "Time dependent behavior of the Asian and the US REITs around the subprime crisis," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 30(3), pages 282-303, April.
    12. K.W. Chau & Bryan D. MacGregor & Gregory M. Schwann, 2001. "Price discovery in the Hong Kong real estate market," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 187-216.
    13. Maurizio d¡¦Amato & Paola Amoruso, 2018. "Application of a Cyclical Capitalization Model to the London Office Market," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 21(1), pages 113-143.
    14. Wilson, Patrick James & Okunev, John & Webb, James J, 1998. "Step Interventions and Market Integration: Tests in the U.S., U.K., and Australian Property Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 91-123, January.
    15. McCartney, John, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of Development Cycles in the Dublin Office Market 1976-2007," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2008(4-Winter), pages 68-92.
    16. Brent W. Ambrose & Hugh O. Nourse, 1993. "Factors Influencing Capitalization Rates," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(2), pages 221-238.
    17. Camilo Serrano & Martin Hoesli, 2012. "Fractional Cointegration Analysis of Securitized Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 319-338, April.
    18. Franz Fuerst & Anna-Maija Grandy, "undated". ""Oft Expectation Fails": A Time-Series Analysis of Construction Starts in the London Office Market," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2010-13, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    19. Robert Edelstein & Desmond Tsang, 2007. "Dynamic Residential Housing Cycles Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 295-313, October.
    20. Tien Sing & I-Chun Tsai & Ming-Chi Chen, 2016. "Time-Varying Betas of US REITs from 1972 to 2013," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 50-72, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    real estate business cycle; asymmetric phases of the cycle; pre-emptive real estate policies; temporary remedy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eaa:eerese:v:6:y2006:i:6_4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: M. Carmen Guisan (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.