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A Fundamental Examination of Securitized and Unsecuritized Real Estate

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    Abstract

    Most studies (including this one) have found a weak statistical relationship between total returns for securitized and unsecuritized real estate equities. Some studies argue that REIT shares behave more like the stock market, than real estate. In an attempt to focus this discussion, this study examines the fundamental underlying return-generating components: dividends, investment values, and dividend yields using NAREIT and NCREIF data from 1978 through 1994. While dividends have been part of the REIT pricing calculus for some time, relatively few studies have focused upon the "dividends" paid by NCREIF properties. The short-run relationships between these fundamental components are weak and many of their distributions display significant non-normal tendencies. Even when quarterly lags of up to two years are examined, these distributions also tend to be weakly correlated with one another. Of the three fundamental components, the long-run path of prices exhibited the strongest relationship. Interestingly, the volatility of the NCREIF dividend series is approximately 150% of the NAREIT volatility, while the volatility of the NCREIF asset values is roughly 25% of the NAREIT volatility. This is contradictory: in a simplified setting, greater dividend volatility should be accompanied by greater price volatility, not less, as observed here. Nevertheless, such comparisons suffer due to the incompatibility of the data sources and, accordingly, this study should be viewed as a preliminary examination of securitized and unsecuritized real estate returns.

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    File URL: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol10n04/v10p381.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal Journal of Real Estate Research.

    Volume (Year): 10 (1995)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 381-426

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    Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:10:n:5:1994:p:381-426

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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    Web page: http://www.aresnet.org/

    Order Information:
    Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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    Web: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/about/get.htm

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    References

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    1. Liu, Crocker H & Mei, Jianping, 1992. "The Predictability of Returns on Equity REITs and Their Co-movement with Other Assets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 401-18, December.
    2. Howe, John S & Shilling, James D, 1988. " Capital Structure Theory and REIT Security Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(4), pages 983-93, September.
    3. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1994. " Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1541-78, December.
    4. Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," NBER Working Papers 0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Ross, Stephen A & Zisler, Randall C, 1991. "Risk and Return in Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 175-90, June.
    6. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
    7. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "The Use of Volatility Measures in Assessing Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(2), pages 291-304, May.
    8. David M. Geltner, 1993. "Estimating Market Values from Appraised Values without Assuming an Efficient Market," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(3), pages 325-346.
    9. K.C. Chan & Patric H. Hendershott & Anthony B. Sanders, 1990. "Risk and Return on Real Estate: Evidence from Equity REITs," NBER Working Papers 3311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    11. K.C. Chen & Daniel D. Tzang, 1988. "Interest-Rate Sensitivity of Real Estate Investment Trusts," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 3(3), pages 13-22.
    12. S. Michael Giliberto, 1990. "Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts and Real Estate Returns," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 5(2), pages 259-264.
    13. F.C. Neil Myer & James R. Webb, 1994. "Retail Stocks, Retail REITs, and Retail Real Estate," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(1), pages 65-84.
    14. Fisher, Jeffrey D & Geltner, David M & Webb, R Brian, 1994. "Value Indices of Commercial Real Estate: A Comparison of Index Construction Methods," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 137-64, September.
    15. Fama, Eugene F & Jensen, Michael C, 1983. "Separation of Ownership and Control," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(2), pages 301-25, June.
    16. Terence Khoo & David Hartzell & Martin Hoesli, 1993. "An Investigation of the Change in Real Estate Investment Trust Betas," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(2), pages 107-130.
    17. Brian A. Marts & Fayez A. Elayan, 1990. "Capital Structure and the Cost of Capital for Untaxed Firms: The Case of REITs," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(1), pages 22-39.
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    19. Willard Mclntosh & Ronald C. Rogers & C. F. Sirmans & Youguo Liang, 1994. "Stock Price and Management Changes: The Case of REITs," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 22(3), pages 515-526.
    20. Myron J. Gordon & Eli Shapiro, 1956. "Capital Equipment Analysis: The Required Rate of Profit," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 3(1), pages 102-110, October.
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    Cited by:
    1. William G. Hardin, III & Marvin L. Wolverton, 1999. "Equity REIT Property Acquisitions: Do Apartment REITs Pay a Premium?," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 17(1), pages 113-126.
    2. Conlin Lizieri & Steven Satchell & Elaine Worzala & Roberto Dacco', 1998. "Real Interest Regimes and Real Estate Performance: A Comparison of UK and US Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 16(3), pages 339-356.

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