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Analysing and Forecasting the Debt Burden of the EU Countries: Is There a New European Debt Crisis on the Horizon?

Author

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  • Dimcho Shopov

    (D. A. Tsenov Academy of Economics)

Abstract

The debt crisis which afflicted Europe highlights the weaknesses and instability of the EU member states' financial systems, as well as the inability of their national economies to maintain normal levels of indebtedness. The deteriorating economic environment requires changes in the fiscal policies across Europe. These changes are effected using new financial instruments to raise the necessary funds for implementation of economic reforms in the EU member states. The aim of this study is to analyse the current levels of sovereign debt across the European Union and to forecast their development in the future using specialized econometric software. The results may be used to identify possible future economic shocks in Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimcho Shopov, 2020. "Analysing and Forecasting the Debt Burden of the EU Countries: Is There a New European Debt Crisis on the Horizon?," Economic Archive, D. A. Tsenov Academy of Economics, Svishtov, Bulgaria, issue 2 Year 20, pages 58-78.
    • Handle: RePEc:dat:earchi:y:2020:i:2:p:58-78
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10610/4349
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    2. Acharyya, Rajat & Kar, Saibal, 2014. "International Trade and Economic Development," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199672851.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; sovereign debt; debt crisis; European Union; forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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