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European Fiscal Discipline Before And After Emu: Crash Diet Or Permanent Weight Loss?

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  • HALLETT, ANDREW HUGHES
  • LEWIS, JOHN

Abstract

This paper studies the evolution of European fiscal policies in three periods: the pre-Maastricht phase (to 1991); the runup to monetary union (1992–1997), and the stability pact phase (1998 onward). Using three separate indicators, we search for structural breaks that could signify a change in the average level of discipline in these periods. We find increased fiscal discipline only up to 1997. We conclude the new fiscal discipline was a temporary phenomenon, a product of the sanction of being denied entry to the Euro. After EMU, fiscal policy gradually loosened. A single structural break test will miss these dynamic effects, and could easily generate the false conclusion that fiscal discipline had tightened since the start of phase two of EMU.

Suggested Citation

  • Hallett, Andrew Hughes & Lewis, John, 2008. "European Fiscal Discipline Before And After Emu: Crash Diet Or Permanent Weight Loss?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 404-424, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:12:y:2008:i:03:p:404-424_07
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    Cited by:

    1. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2012. "How does fiscal policy react to wealth composition and asset prices?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 874-890.
    2. Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2012. "How do central banks react to wealth composition and asset prices?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 641-653.
    3. Győrffy, Dóra, 2008. "Költségvetési kiigazítás és növekedés az Európai Unióban. Tanulságok Magyarország számára [Budget adjustment and growth in the European Union lessons for Hungary]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 962-986.
    4. Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Frenkel, Michael & Lis, Eliza, 2013. "Do budget balance rules anchor budget balance expectations? -- Some international evidence," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80050, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Hodula Martin & Pfeifer Lukáš, 2018. "Fiscal-Monetary-Financial Stability Interactions in a Data-Rich Environment," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 18(3), pages 195-224, September.
    6. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Rasmus Kattai & John Lewis, 2009. "Can we rely on real time figures for cyclically adjusted budget balances?," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2009-2, Bank of Estonia, revised 20 Oct 2009.
    7. Thushyanthan Baskaran, 2009. "Did the Maastricht treaty matter for macroeconomic performance? A difference‐in‐difference investigation," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(3), pages 331-358, August.
    8. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Gadea, Maria Dolores, 2012. "The single monetary policy and domestic macro-fundamentals: Evidence from Spain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 16-34.
    9. Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Scott, Drew, 2010. "Scotland: A New Fiscal Settlement," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-23, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    10. Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2014. "The Determinants of the Volatility of Fiscal Policy Discretion," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 35, pages 91-115, March.
    11. Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Scott, Drew, 2010. "Scotland: A New Fiscal Settlement," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-23, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    12. Luca Agnello & Gilles Dufrénot & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "Adjusting the U.S. Fiscal Policy for Asset Prices: Evidence from a TVP-MS Framework," NIPE Working Papers 20/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    13. Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2013. "Fiscal Policy And Asset Prices," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 154-177, April.
    14. Baskaran, Thushyanthan, 2009. "Did the Maastricht treaty matter for macroeconomic performance?," MPRA Paper 30106, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. De Jong, Jasper F.M. & Gilbert, Niels D., 2020. "Fiscal discipline in EMU? Testing the effectiveness of the Excessive Deficit Procedure," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    16. De Jong, Jasper F.M. & Gilbert, Niels D., 2020. "Fiscal discipline in EMU? Testing the effectiveness of the Excessive Deficit Procedure," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    17. Ioannou, Demosthenes & Stracca, Livio, 2014. "Have the euro area and EU governance worked? Just the facts," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 1-17.

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