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Do Stock Markets Catch the Flu?

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  • McTier, Brian C.
  • Tse, Yiuman
  • Wald, John K.

Abstract

We examine the impact of influenza on stock markets. For the United States, a higher incidence of flu is associated with decreased trading, decreased volatility, decreased returns, and higher bid-ask spreads. Consistent with the flu affecting institutional investors and market makers, the decrease in trading activity and volatility is primarily driven by the incidence of influenza in the greater New York City area. However, the effect of the flu on bid-ask spreads and returns is related to the incidence of flu nationally. International data confirm our findings of a decrease in trading activity and returns when flu incidence is high.

Suggested Citation

  • McTier, Brian C. & Tse, Yiuman & Wald, John K., 2013. "Do Stock Markets Catch the Flu?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(3), pages 979-1000, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:48:y:2013:i:03:p:979-1000_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Siyi Liu & Xin Liu & Chuancai Zhang & Lingli Zhang, 2023. "Institutional and individual investors' short‐term reactions to the COVID‐19 crisis in China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(4), pages 4333-4355, December.
    2. Holland, Sara B., 2017. "Firm investment in human health capital," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 374-390.
    3. Adnan Abo Al Haija & Rahma Lahyani, 2023. "Dynamic interactions of actual stock returns with forecasted stock returns and investors’ risk aversion: empirical evidence interplaying the impact of Covid-19 pandemic," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1129-1149, October.
    4. Talie Kassamany & Bernard Zgheib, 2023. "Impact of government policy responses of COVID‐19 pandemic on stock market liquidity for Australian companies," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 24-46, March.
    5. Baltakys, Kęstutis & Kanniainen, Juho & Saramäki, Jari & Kivelä, Mikko, 2023. "Investor trade allocation patterns in stock markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 191-209.
    6. Ho, Kung-Cheng & Yao, Chia-ling & Zhao, Chenfang & Pan, Zikui, 2022. "Modern health pandemic crises and stock price crash risk," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 448-463.
    7. Grant, Andrew & Kalev, Petko S. & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Joakim Westerholm, P., 2022. "Retail trading activity and major lifecycle events: The case of divorce," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    8. Zhu, Jun & Ho, Kung-Cheng & Luo, Sijia & Peng, Langchuan, 2023. "Pandemic and tax avoidance: Cross-country evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    9. Kemal Tosun, Onur & Eshraghi, Arman & Muradoglu, Gulnur, 2023. "Learning financial survival from disasters," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    10. Ho, Ken C. & Gao, Yibo & Gu, Qiying & Yang, Da, 2022. "Covid-19 vaccine approvals and stock market returns: The case of Chinese stocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    11. Lepori, Gabriele M., 2023. "Acute illness symptoms among investment professionals and stock market dynamics: Evidence from New York City," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 165-181.
    12. Kaustia, Markku & Rantapuska, Elias, 2016. "Does mood affect trading behavior?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-26.
    13. Yarovaya, Larisa & Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Goodell, John W. & Lucey, Brian & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2022. "Rethinking financial contagion: Information transmission mechanism during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    14. Katarzyna Czech & Michał Wielechowski & Richard Barichello, 2023. "The shock of war: do trade relations impact the reaction of stock markets to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, issue 1, pages 14-27.
    15. Chong Guan & Wenting Liu & Jack Yu-Chao Cheng, 2022. "Using Social Media to Predict the Stock Market Crash and Rebound amid the Pandemic: The Digital ‘Haves’ and ‘Have-mores’," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 5-31, February.
    16. Lai Cao Mai Phuong, 2021. "How Covid19 affects the stock return of the Vietnamese pharmaceutical industry: event study method," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 8(4), pages 250-261, June.
    17. Gong, Di & Jiang, Tao & Lu, Liping, 2021. "Pandemic and bank lending: Evidence from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    18. Ahmed Baig & Jason Berkowitz & Ronald Jared DeLisle & Todd Griffith, 2023. "COVID‐19 intensity across U.S. states and the liquidity of U.S. equity markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 235-259, May.
    19. Yan Yu, 2022. "Analyst Earnings Forecast Optimism during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-16, October.
    20. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Bwanya, Princess Rutendo & Charteris, Ailie & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2021. "The only certainty is uncertainty: An analysis of the impact of COVID-19 uncertainty on regional stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    21. Zhang, Cheng & Lee, Yun-Chi & Ho, Kung-Cheng & Shen, Xixi, 2023. "Influence of institutional differences on trade credit use during pandemics," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    22. Gavalas, Dimitris & Syriopoulos, Theodoros & Tsatsaronis, Michael, 2022. "COVID–19 impact on the shipping industry: An event study approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 157-164.
    23. Liu, Qingfu & Shi, Chen & Tse, Yiuman & Wang, Chuanjie, 2023. "The value of communication during pandemics," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    24. Chowdhury, Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous & Meo, Muhammad Saeed & Aloui, Chaker, 2021. "How world uncertainties and global pandemics destabilized food, energy and stock markets? Fresh evidence from quantile on quantile regressions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    25. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Wilhelm, Paulo Victor Berri & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2022. "The role of non-critical business and telework propensity in international stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

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