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Can Mutual Fund Managers Pick Stocks? Evidence from Their Trades Prior to Earnings Announcements

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Author Info

  • Baker, Malcolm
  • Litov, Lubomir
  • Wachter, Jessica A.
  • Wurgler, Jeffrey

Abstract

We test whether fund managers have stock-picking skill by comparing their holdings and trades prior to earnings announcements with the returns realized at those events. This approach largely avoids the joint-hypothesis problem with long-horizon studies of fund performance. Consistent with skilled trading, we find that, on average, stocks that funds buy earn significantly higher returns at subsequent earnings announcements than stocks that they sell. Funds display persistence in our event return-based metrics, and those that do well tend to have a growth objective, large size, high turnover, and use incentive fees to motivate managers.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.

Volume (Year): 45 (2010)
Issue (Month): 05 (October)
Pages: 1111-1131

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Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:45:y:2010:i:05:p:1111-1131_00

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Agarwal, Vikas & Mullally, Kevin & Tang, Yuehua & Yang, Baozhong, 2013. "Mandatory portfolio disclosure, stock liquidity, and mutual fund performance," CFR Working Papers 13-04, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  2. Marcin Kacperczyk & Clemens Sialm & Lu Zheng, 2005. "Unobserved Actions of Mutual Funds," NBER Working Papers 11766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Agarwal, Vikas & Gay, Gerald D. & Ling, Leng, 2013. "Window dressing in mutual funds," CFR Working Papers 11-07 [rev.2], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  4. Avery, Christopher N. & Chevalier, Judith & Zeckhauser, Richard Jay, 2011. "The "CAPS" Prediction System and Stock Market Returns," Scholarly Articles 5098427, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  5. Agarwal, Vikas & Gay, Gerald D. & Ling, Leng, 2012. "Performance inconsistency in mutual funds: An investigation of window-dressing behavior," CFR Working Papers 11-07 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  6. Solomon, David H. & Soltes, Eugene & Sosyura, Denis, 2014. "Winners in the spotlight: Media coverage of fund holdings as a driver of flows," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 53-72.
  7. Owen Lamont & Andrea Frazzini, 2007. "The Earnings Announcement Premium and Trading Volume," NBER Working Papers 13090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Agarwal, Vikas & Gay, Gerald D. & Ling, Leng, 2011. "Window dressing in mutual funds," CFR Working Papers 11-07, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  9. Jonathan B. Berk & Jules H. van Binsbergen, 2012. "Measuring Managerial Skill in the Mutual Fund Industry," NBER Working Papers 18184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Marcin Kacperczyk & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Laura Veldkamp, 2009. "Rational Attention Allocation Over the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 15450, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Lauren Cohen & Andrea Frazzini & Christopher Malloy, 2007. "The Small World of Investing: Board Connections and Mutual Fund Returns," NBER Working Papers 13121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Xiang, Erwei & Tian, Gloria Y. & Yang, Fan & Liu, Zhiyuan, 2014. "Do mutual funds have information advantage? Evidence from seasoned equity offerings in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 70-79.
  13. Ling, Leng & Arias, J.J., 2013. "Mutual fund flows and window-dressing," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 440-449.
  14. Aitken, Michael & Cumming, Douglas & Zhan, Feng, 2013. "Exchange trading rules, surveillance and insider trading," CFS Working Paper Series 2013/15, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  15. Wermers, Russ & Yao, Tong & Zhao, Jane, 2012. "Forecasting stock returns through an efficient aggregation of mutual fund holdings," CFR Working Papers 06-09 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  16. Han, Bing & Wang, Winghai, 2005. "Institutional Investment Constraints and Stock Prices," Working Paper Series 2004-24, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
  17. Bechmann, Ken L. & Rangvid , Jesper, 2006. "Rating mutual funds," Working Papers 2005-6, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Finance.
  18. Berry, Thomas & Gamble, Keith Jacks, 2013. "Informed local trading prior to earnings announcements," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 505-525.

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