Estimating the Dynamics of Mutual Fund Alphas and Betas
AbstractThis article develops a Kalman filter model to track dynamic mutual fund factor loadings. It then uses the estimates to analyze whether managers with market-timing ability can be identified ex ante. The primary findings are as follows: (i) Ordinary least squares (OLS) timing models produce false positives (nonzero alphas) at too high a rate with either daily or monthly data. In contrast, the Kalman filter model produces them at approximately the correct rate with monthly data; (ii) In monthly data, though the OLS models fail to detect any timing among fund managers, the Kalman filter does; (iii) The alpha and beta forecasts from the Kalman model are more accurate than those from the OLS timing models; (iv) The Kalman filter model tracks most fund alphas and betas better than OLS models that employ macroeconomic variables in addition to fund returns. The Author 2007. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies., Oxford University Press.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Society for Financial Studies in its journal The Review of Financial Studies.
Volume (Year): 21 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Oxford University Press, Journals Department, 2001 Evans Road, Cary, NC 27513 USA.
Web page: http://www.rfs.oupjournals.org/
More information through EDIRC
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Nucera, Federico & Valente, Giorgio, 2013.
"Carry trades and the performance of currency hedge funds,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 407-425.
- Federico Nucera & Giorgio Valente, 2013. "Carry Trades and the Performance of Currency Hedge Funds," Working Papers 032013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Martin Bohl & Philipp Kaufmann & Patrick Stephan, 2012. "From Hero to Zero: Evidence of Performance Reversal and Speculative Bubbles in German Renewable Energy Stocks," CQE Working Papers 2412, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
- Herrmann, Ulf & Scholz, Hendrik, 2013. "Short-term persistence in hybrid mutual fund performance: The role of style-shifting abilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2314-2328.
- Angelidis, Timotheos & Giamouridis, Daniel & Tessaromatis, Nikolaos, 2012.
"Revisiting Mutual Fund Performance Evaluation,"
36644, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Andrew Ang & Dennis Kristensen, 2011.
"Testing Conditional Factor Models,"
NBER Working Papers
17561, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew J. Patton & Tarun Ramadorai, 2013.
"On the High-Frequency Dynamics of Hedge Fund Risk Exposures,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 68(2), pages 597-635, 04.
- Patton, Andrew J & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2011. "On the High-Frequency Dynamics of Hedge Fund Risk Exposures," CEPR Discussion Papers 8479, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Godfrey Charles-Cadogan, 2012. "Alpha Representation For Active Portfolio Management and High Frequency Trading In Seemingly Efficient Markets," Papers 1206.2662, arXiv.org.
- Jonathan Fletcher & Patricia Ntozi-Obwale, 2009. "Exploring the Conditional Performance of U.K. Unit Trusts," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 21-44, August.
- Patton, Andrew J & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2010. "On the Dynamics of Hedge Fund Risk Exposures," CEPR Discussion Papers 7780, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ortas, Eduardo & Moneva, José M. & Salvador, Manuel, 2012. "Does socially responsible investment equity indexes in emerging markets pay off? Evidence from Brazil," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 581-597.
- Swaminathan G. Badrinath & Stefano Gubellini, 2012. "Does conditional mutual fund outperformance exist?," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 38(12), pages 1160-1183.
- Ekholm, Anders G., 2012. "Portfolio returns and manager activity: How to decompose tracking error into security selection and market timing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 349-358.
- Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Out-of-sample equity premium prediction: economic fundamentals vs. moving-average rules," Working Papers 2010-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Bohl, Martin T. & Kaufmann, Philipp & Stephan, Patrick M., 2013. "From hero to zero: Evidence of performance reversal and speculative bubbles in German renewable energy stocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 40-51.
- Holmes, Kathryn A. & Faff, Robert, 2008. "Estimating the performance attributes of Australian multi-sector managed funds within a dynamic Kalman filter framework," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 998-1011, December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.