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Estimating the Dynamics of Mutual Fund Alphas and Betas

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  • Harry Mamaysky
  • Matthew Spiegel
  • Hong Zhang
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    Abstract

    This article develops a Kalman filter model to track dynamic mutual fund factor loadings. It then uses the estimates to analyze whether managers with market-timing ability can be identified ex ante. The primary findings are as follows: (i) Ordinary least squares (OLS) timing models produce false positives (nonzero alphas) at too high a rate with either daily or monthly data. In contrast, the Kalman filter model produces them at approximately the correct rate with monthly data; (ii) In monthly data, though the OLS models fail to detect any timing among fund managers, the Kalman filter does; (iii) The alpha and beta forecasts from the Kalman model are more accurate than those from the OLS timing models; (iv) The Kalman filter model tracks most fund alphas and betas better than OLS models that employ macroeconomic variables in addition to fund returns. The Author 2007. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies., Oxford University Press.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Society for Financial Studies in its journal The Review of Financial Studies.

    Volume (Year): 21 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 233-264

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    Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:21:y:2008:i:1:p:233-264

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    Cited by:
    1. Federico Nucera & Giorgio Valente, 2013. "Carry Trades and the Performance of Currency Hedge Funds," Working Papers 032013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    2. Dennis Kristensen & Andrew Ang, 2009. "Testing Conditional Factor Models," CREATES Research Papers 2009-09, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
    3. Herrmann, Ulf & Scholz, Hendrik, 2013. "Short-term persistence in hybrid mutual fund performance: The role of style-shifting abilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2314-2328.
    4. Bohl, Martin T. & Kaufmann, Philipp & Stephan, Patrick M., 2013. "From hero to zero: Evidence of performance reversal and speculative bubbles in German renewable energy stocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 40-51.
    5. Holmes, Kathryn A. & Faff, Robert, 2008. "Estimating the performance attributes of Australian multi-sector managed funds within a dynamic Kalman filter framework," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 998-1011, December.
    6. Swaminathan G. Badrinath & Stefano Gubellini, 2012. "Does conditional mutual fund outperformance exist?," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 38(12), pages 1160-1183.
    7. Ekholm, Anders G., 2012. "Portfolio returns and manager activity: How to decompose tracking error into security selection and market timing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 349-358.
    8. Gupta-Mukherjee, Swasti, 2013. "When active fund managers deviate from their peers: Implications for fund performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1286-1305.
    9. Patton, Andrew J & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2010. "On the Dynamics of Hedge Fund Risk Exposures," CEPR Discussion Papers 7780, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Martin Bohl & Philipp Kaufmann & Patrick Stephan, 2012. "From Hero to Zero: Evidence of Performance Reversal and Speculative Bubbles in German Renewable Energy Stocks," CQE Working Papers 2412, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    11. Patton, Andrew J & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2011. "On the High-Frequency Dynamics of Hedge Fund Risk Exposures," CEPR Discussion Papers 8479, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Jonathan B. Berk & Jules H. van Binsbergen, 2012. "Measuring Managerial Skill in the Mutual Fund Industry," NBER Working Papers 18184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Out-of-sample equity premium prediction: economic fundamentals vs. moving-average rules," Working Papers 2010-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    14. Angelidis, Timotheos & Giamouridis, Daniel & Tessaromatis, Nikolaos, 2013. "Revisiting mutual fund performance evaluation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1759-1776.
    15. Ortas, Eduardo & Moneva, José M. & Salvador, Manuel, 2012. "Does socially responsible investment equity indexes in emerging markets pay off? Evidence from Brazil," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 581-597.
    16. Jonathan Fletcher & Patricia Ntozi-Obwale, 2009. "Exploring the Conditional Performance of U.K. Unit Trusts," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 21-44, August.
    17. Godfrey Charles-Cadogan, 2012. "Alpha Representation For Active Portfolio Management and High Frequency Trading In Seemingly Efficient Markets," Papers 1206.2662, arXiv.org.
    18. Hunter, David & Kandel, Eugene & Kandel, Shmuel & Wermers, Russ, 2014. "Mutual fund performance evaluation with active peer benchmarks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 1-29.

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