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Which Democracies Will Last? Coups, Incumbent Takeovers, and the Dynamic of Democratic Consolidation

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  • Svolik, Milan W.

Abstract

This article develops a change-point model of democratic consolidation that conceives of consolidation as a latent quality to be inferred rather than measured directly. Consolidation is hypothesized to occur when a large, durable, and statistically significant decline in the risk of democratic breakdowns occurs at a well-defined point during a democracy's lifetime. This approach is applied to new data on democratic survival that distinguish between breakdowns due to military coups and incumbent takeovers. We find that the risk of an authoritarian reversal by either process differs both in its temporal dynamic and determinants. Crucially, new democracies consolidate against the risk of coups but not incumbent takeovers, suggesting that distinct mechanisms account for the vulnerability of new democracies to these alternative modes of breakdown.

Suggested Citation

  • Svolik, Milan W., 2015. "Which Democracies Will Last? Coups, Incumbent Takeovers, and the Dynamic of Democratic Consolidation," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(4), pages 715-738, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:bjposi:v:45:y:2015:i:04:p:715-738_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Francis,David C. & Kubinec ,Robert, 2022. "Beyond Political Connections : A Measurement Model Approach to Estimating Firm-levelPolitical Influence in 41 Economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10119, The World Bank.
    2. Voigt, Stefan, 2020. "Mind the Gap – Analyzing the Divergence between Constitutional Text and Constitutional Reality," ILE Working Paper Series 32, University of Hamburg, Institute of Law and Economics.
    3. François, Abel & Méon, Pierre-Guillaume, 2021. "Politicians at higher levels of government are perceived as more corrupt," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    4. Thorsten Janus & Daniel Riera‐Crichton & Brittany Tarufelli, 2022. "Commodity terms of trade shocks and political transitions," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 465-493, July.
    5. Alexander Baturo & Jakob Tolstrup, 2023. "Incumbent takeovers," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 60(2), pages 373-386, March.
    6. Sharan Grewal & Yasser Kureshi, 2019. "How to Sell a Coup: Elections as Coup Legitimation," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 63(4), pages 1001-1031, April.
    7. Jerg Gutmann & Stefan Voigt, 2023. "Militant constitutionalism: a promising concept to make constitutional backsliding less likely?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 195(3), pages 377-404, June.
    8. Acemoglu, Daron & Ajzenman, Nicolas & Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Fiszbein, Martin & Molina, Carlos, 2021. "(Successful) Democracies Breed Their Own Support," IZA Discussion Papers 14691, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Jean Lacroix & Pierre-Guillaume Méon & Khalid Sekkat, 2017. "Do democratic transitions attract foreign investors and how fast?," Working Papers CEB 17-006, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    10. Lacroix, Jean & Méon, Pierre-Guillaume & Sekkat, Khalid, 2021. "Democratic transitions can attract foreign direct investment: Effect, trajectories, and the role of political risk," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 340-357.
    11. Boese, Vanessa A. & Edgell, Amanda B. & Hellmeier, Sebastian & Maerz, Seraphine F. & Lindberg, Staffan I., 2021. "How democracies prevail: democratic resilience as a two-stage process," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 28(5), pages 885-907.
    12. Antonis Adam & Kostas Karanatsis, 2019. "Sovereign Defaults and Democracy," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(1), pages 36-62, March.
    13. Steffen Ganghof, 2019. "Designing Democratic Constitutions: The Search for Optimality," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 7(4), pages 243-253.
    14. Nam Kyu Kim, 2021. "Previous Military Rule and Democratic Survival," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 65(2-3), pages 534-562, February.
    15. Haritz Garro, 2019. "Terrorism prevention with reelection concerns and valence competition," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 31(3), pages 330-369, July.
    16. Li Donni, Paolo & Marino, Maria & Welzel, Christian, 2021. "How important is culture to understand political protest?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    17. Johannes Karreth & Jaroslav Tir & Douglas M Gibler, 2022. "Latent territorial threat and democratic regime reversals," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(2), pages 197-212, March.
    18. İpek Çınar, 2021. "Riding the democracy train: incumbent-led paths to autocracy," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 301-325, September.

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