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Assessing the Impact of Trade Policy on Labour Markets and Production

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  • Joseph F. Francois

Abstract

This paper discusses the measurement of production and employment effects of trade policy, and more broadly the effects of economic integration and globalization. First, it provides a broad-brush overview of the ex-post literature linking trade to performance, such as measures of worker displacement, adjustment costs, and econometric evidence on trade and wages. It then defines structural impact indexes, illustrating their use with a stylized CGE model-based assessment of the impact of EU enlargement on the transition economies. Finally, the last section discusses the gap between our ex-post experience with adjustment costs, and what ex-ante methods actually tell us.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by CEPII research center in its journal Economie Internationale.

Volume (Year): (2004)
Issue (Month): 99 ()
Pages: 27-47

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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2004-3qb

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Keywords: Adjustment Costs; Labour Displacement; Output Effects of Trade Liberalization;

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References

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  1. Joseph Francois & Douglas R. Nelson, 2000. "Victims of Progress: Economic Integration, Specialization, and Wages for Unskilled Labor," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 00-065/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  2. James R. Markusen, 1990. "Micro-foundations of External Economies," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 23(3), pages 495-508, August.
  3. Takacs, Wendy E & Winters, L Alan, 1991. "Labour Adjustment Costs and British Footwear Protection," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 43(3), pages 479-501, July.
  4. Joseph F. Francois & Douglas Nelson, 2002. "A Geometry Of Specialisation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(481), pages 649-678, July.
  5. Louis S. Jacobson & Robert J. LaLonde & Daniel G. Sullivan, 1992. "Earnings losses of displaced workers," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 92-28, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  6. Markusen, James R & Venables, Anthony J, 1997. "The Role of Multinational Firms in the Wage-Gap Debate," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(4), pages 435-51, November.
  7. Louis S. Jacobson & Robert J. LaLonde & Daniel G. Sullivan, 1993. "Long-term earnings losses of high-seniority displaced workers," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Nov, pages 2-20.
  8. Francois, Joseph, 1998. "Scale Economies and Imperfect Competition in the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 317, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  9. Francois, Joseph & Grier, Kevin Blaine & Nelson, Douglas, 2004. "Globalization, Roundaboutness and Relative Wages," CEPR Discussion Papers 4406, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Richard E. Baldwin & Joseph F. Francois & Richard Portes, 1997. "The costs and benefits of eastern enlargement: the impact on the EU and central Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 12(24), pages 125-176, 04.
  11. Lovely, Mary E & Nelson, Douglas R, 2000. "Marginal Intraindustry Trade and Labor Adjustment," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 436-47, August.
  12. Greenaway, David & Hine, Robert C. & Wright, Peter, 1999. "An empirical assessment of the impact of trade on employment in the United Kingdom," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 485-500, September.
  13. Ethier, Wilfred J, 1982. "National and International Returns to Scale in the Modern Theory of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 389-405, June.
  14. F. R. Casas, 1984. "Imperfect Factor Mobility: A Generalization and Synthesis of Two-Sector Models of International Trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 17(4), pages 747-61, November.
  15. Baldwin, Robert E. & Mutti, John H. & Richardson, J. David, 1980. "Welfare effects on the United States of a significant multilateral tariff reduction," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 405-423, August.
  16. Wood, Adrian, 1997. "Openness and Wage Inequality in Developing Countries: The Latin American Challenge to East Asian Conventional Wisdom," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 11(1), pages 33-57, January.
  17. James R. Markusen & Anthony J. Venables, 1996. "Multinational Production, Skilled Labor and Real Wages," NBER Working Papers 5483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Rivera-Batiz, Francisco L. & Rivera-Batiz, Luis A., 1990. "The effects of direct foreign investment in the presence of increasing returns due to specialization," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 287-307, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Bernard Hoekman & Alan L. Winters, 2005. "Trade and Employment: Stylized Facts and Research Findings," Working Papers 7, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.

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