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Economic activity in 2007: forecasts and reality

Author

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

For many year the Ifo Institute has critically examined its own economic forecasts and has discussed the reasons for differences between its forecasts and reality. In 2007 the basic economic development forecasted by the Ifo Institute for Germany was largely accurate. The upswing since 2005 continued in 2007 in spite of the massive increase in the value-added tax rate. The dynamics of the upswing were even underestimated somewhat in the Ifo December 2006 forecast. Private consumption, however, did not increase in 2007, on average - as we had predicted in December 2006 - but fell.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Economic activity in 2007: forecasts and reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(03), pages 21-26, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:61:y:2008:i:03:p:21-26
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. H. Bakhshi & G. Kapetanios & T. Yates, 2005. "Rational expectations and fixed-event forecasts: An application to UK inflation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 539-553, October.
    2. Nordhaus, William D, 1987. "Forecasting Efficiency: Concepts and Applications," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(4), pages 667-674, November.
    3. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 1999. "Aus dem Instrumentenkasten der Konjunkturanalyse : Veränderungen im Vergleich," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 52(27), pages 11-19, October.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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