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Early indicators derived from survey data: adequate construction design and forecasting quality

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  • Georg Goldrian

Abstract

The Ifo surveys are marked by a broad coverage of the economy according to sectors, industries and products as well as additional, future-oriented factors. This results is a whole series of powerful early indicators. The forecast quality becomes all the more apparent when they are linked together in a composite indicator. These data together with the GfK consumer survey information provide an instrument based solely on qualitative variables that provide early and reliable signals on trends in the economic situation. The attempt to further refine this approach by adding quantitative early indictors has only produced limited success.

Suggested Citation

  • Georg Goldrian, 2001. "Early indicators derived from survey data: adequate construction design and forecasting quality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(22), pages 32-36, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:54:y:2001:i:22:p:32-36
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hüfner, Felix P. & Schröder, Michael, 2001. "Unternehmens- versus Analystenbefragungen: Zum Prognosegehalt von ifo-Geschäftserwartungen und ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen," ZEW Discussion Papers 01-04, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    2. G. Goldrian & J.D. Lindbauer & G. Nerb & B. Ulrich, 2001. "Evaluation and development of confidence indicators based on harmonised business and consumer surveys (Study contracted to IFO, Munich)," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 151, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hinze, Jorg, 2003. "Prognoseleistung von Fruhindikatoren: Die Bedeutung von Fruhindikatoren fur Konjunk-turprognosen - Eine Analyse fur Deutschland," Discussion Paper Series 26253, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    2. Georg Goldrian, 2004. "A leading indicator for the development of the gross domestic product," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(07), pages 41-43, April.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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