IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/kyklos/v58y2005i3p415-437.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

TV Weather Forecast or Look through the Window? Expert and Consumer Expectations about Macroeconomic Conditions

Author

Listed:
  • Michael W. M. Roos

Abstract

This paper investigates the empirical relation between consumer and expert expectations about macroeconomic conditions in Germany. Using data from the EU Consumer Confidence Survey and the ZEW business expectations, static models and error‐correction models are estimated explaining consumer expectations as functions of expert expectations, consumer retrospections, and lagged consumer expectations. It's found that consumer expectations are only weakly related to expert expectations, but strongly influenced by consumers' retrospections. Consumers primarily extrapolate perceptions about current economic conditions in the future. However, during national election campaigns, the relation between consumer and expert expectations is stronger.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael W. M. Roos, 2005. "TV Weather Forecast or Look through the Window? Expert and Consumer Expectations about Macroeconomic Conditions," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 415-437, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:58:y:2005:i:3:p:415-437
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0023-5962.2005.00295.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0023-5962.2005.00295.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.0023-5962.2005.00295.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benner, Joachim & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2003. "Prognosegüte alternativer Frühindikatoren für die Konjunktur in Deutschland," Kiel Working Papers 1139, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Hüfner, Felix P. & Schröder, Michael, 2001. "Unternehmens- versus Analystenbefragungen: Zum Prognosegehalt von ifo-Geschäftserwartungen und ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen," ZEW Discussion Papers 01-04, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michael W. M. Roos & Ulrich Schmidt, 2012. "The Importance of Time‐Series Extrapolation for Macroeconomic Expectations," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 13(2), pages 196-210, May.
    2. Brückbauer, Frank & Schröder, Michael, 2021. "Data resource profile: The ZEW FMS dataset," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-100, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    3. Roos, Michael W.M., 2008. "Predicting the macroeconomic effects of abstract and concrete events," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 192-201, March.
    4. Gerunov, Anton, 2013. "Връзка Между Икономическите Очаквания И Стопанската Динамика В Ес-27 [Linkages Between Expectations and Economic Dynamics in EU-27]," MPRA Paper 68795, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vogt Gerit, 2007. "Analyse der Prognoseeigenschaften von ifo-Konjunkturindikatoren unter Echtzeitbedingungen / The Forecasting Performance of ifo-indicators Under Real-time Conditions," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 227(1), pages 87-101, February.
    2. Mühlenweg, Andrea & Sprietsma, Maresa & Horstschräer, Julia, 2010. "Humankapitalpotenziale der gestuften Hochschulabschlüsse in Deutschland: Auswertungen zu Studienbeteiligung, Studienabbrüchen, Mobilität und Eingangsselektion," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, volume 14, number 110547.
    3. Gerit Vogt, 2009. "Konjunkturprognose in Deutschland. Ein Beitrag zur Prognose der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung auf Bundes- und Länderebene," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 36.
    4. Georg Goldrian, 2001. "Early indicators derived from survey data: adequate construction design and forecasting quality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(22), pages 32-36, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:58:y:2005:i:3:p:415-437. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0023-5962 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.