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How to Empirically Measure Economic Uncertainty - A Presentation Using Germany as an Example

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  • Niels Gillmann
  • Alexander Hilgenberg

Abstract

In economic crises, uncertainty about further economic development also increases. The empirical measurement of this uncertainty is difficult, however, as it cannot be observed directly but must be derived from other available variables. There are several approaches to make uncertainty measurable. In this article, we present the best-known approaches using examples for Germany and try to identify the approach most promising for measuring uncertainty. Overall, uncertainty measures based on business surveys appear to be the most suitable for quantifying economic uncertainty in Germany.

Suggested Citation

  • Niels Gillmann & Alexander Hilgenberg, 2021. "How to Empirically Measure Economic Uncertainty - A Presentation Using Germany as an Example," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 28(02), pages 24-29, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:28:y:2021:i:02:p:24-29
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    References listed on IDEAS

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