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Wie Aktienmärkte pro- und antieuropäische Positionen nationaler Regierungen bewerten: Gewinner und Verlierer

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  • Timo Plage

Abstract

Dieses Papier analysiert die kurzfristigen Aktienkursreaktionen auf den Ausgang von 91 nationalen Parlamentswahlen innerhalb der EU. Die Bedeutung verschiedener unternehmensspezifischer Merkmale für die Kursreaktion hängt mitunter davon ab, ob die gewählten Parteien relativ proeuropäisch oder euroskeptisch sind. Die Zugehörigkeit zum Sektor handelbarer Güter und ein hoher Auslandsumsatz sind mit einem vergleichsweise höheren Anstieg der Aktienkurse verbunden, wenn die gewählte Regierung proeuropäisch ist, während sich eine hohe Kapitalintensität negativ auswirkt. Bei der Wahl einer relativ euroskeptischen Regierung profitieren vergleichsweise große Unternehmen mit einem hohen Umsatzanteil im Inland. Die Relevanz der einzelnen Effekte hat sich im Zeitraum 1987 bis 2014 deutlich verändert.

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  • Timo Plage, 2019. "Wie Aktienmärkte pro- und antieuropäische Positionen nationaler Regierungen bewerten: Gewinner und Verlierer," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 26(03), pages 14-17, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:26:y:2019:i:03:p:14-17
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