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Chapter 1: Macroeconomic Conditions and Outlook

Author

Listed:
  • Torben M. Andersen
  • Giuseppe Bertola
  • John Driffill
  • Harold James
  • Hans-Werner Sinn
  • Jan-Egbert Sturm
  • Branko Uroševic

Abstract

Whereas the industrialised countries remained in recovery mode last year, economic development in the emerging markets slowed down markedly. Latin America and Russia actually went into recession, albeit for different reasons. Whereas in previous years the emerging markets were the main drivers behind world economic development, and thereby the slow recovery of the industrialised world, these roles were reversed last year. Good business cycle conditions in the United States and the United Kingdom, together with recovery towards moderate growth in the euro area, had a stabilising influence on the world economy in 2015. This development is in essence expected to continue, allowing countries like the United States and the United Kingdom to slowly change their monetary policy stance and make it less accommodating. The recessions in Latin America and Russia will lose their strength and the smaller East Asian economies will be able to return to somewhat higher growth. All in all, this will allow the world economy to remain in the moderate recovery mode that has been witnessed since 2011.

Suggested Citation

  • Torben M. Andersen & Giuseppe Bertola & John Driffill & Harold James & Hans-Werner Sinn & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Branko Uroševic, 2016. "Chapter 1: Macroeconomic Conditions and Outlook," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo, vol. 0, pages 14-53, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:eeagre:v::y:2016:i::p:14-53
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    Cited by:

    1. Régis Barnichon & Geert Mesters, 2023. "Evaluating Policy Institutions -150 Years of US Monetary Policy-," Working Papers 1410, Barcelona School of Economics.
    2. Regis Barnichon & Geert Mesters, 2020. "Identifying Modern Macro Equations with Old Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(4), pages 2255-2298.
    3. Régis Barnichon & Geert Mesters, 2020. "Optimal policy perturbations," Economics Working Papers 1716, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    4. Koh, Rachel & Kern, Jordan & Galelli, Stefano, 2022. "Hard-coupling water and power system models increases the complementarity of renewable energy sources," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).
    5. Prakash, Kushneel & Kumar, Sanjesh, 2021. "“Smoking your child’s job away”: Parental smoking during one’s childhood and the probability of being employed in adulthood," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 86-98.
    6. Budi, Rizki Firmansyah Setya & Sarjiya, & Hadi, Sasongko Pramono, 2021. "Multi-level game theory model for partially deregulated generation expansion planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    7. Régis Barnichon & Geert Mesters, 2020. "A Sufficient Statistics Approach for Macro Policy Evaluation," Working Papers 1171, Barcelona School of Economics.
    8. Régis Barnichon & Geert Mesters, 2023. "Evaluating policy institutions -150 years of US monetary policy-," Economics Working Papers 1873, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.

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