Are the effects of fiscal changes different in times of crisis and non crisis? The French case
AbstractThis paper shows that the impact of changes in budgetary variables on real GDP, investment, consumption and employment varies in sign and magnitude in times of crisis and non-crisis. To this end, a regime-switching process is embedded in standard macroeconomic equations in order to take into account different budgetary regimes. We find evidence of asymmetric effects for both the multiplier of government expenditure and the fiscal multiplier, with differing effects during the phases of crisis and non-crisis depending upon the level of debt, of the unemployment rate, of the outputgap.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Dalloz in its journal Revue d'économie politique.
Volume (Year): 121 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
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Web page: http://www.cairn.info/revue-d-economie-politique.htm
Fiscal policy; Markov-switching; Crisis;
Other versions of this item:
- Bouthevillain, C. & Dufrénot, G., 2010. "Are the effects of fiscal changes different in times of crisis and non-crisis? The French Case," Working papers 286, Banque de France.
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
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- Agnello, Luca & Dufrénot, Gilles & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2013. "Using time-varying transition probabilities in Markov switching processes to adjust US fiscal policy for asset prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 25-36.
- Wolfgang Lechthaler & Dennis Snower, 2013.
"Worker Identity, Employment Fluctuations and Stabilization Policy,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
4271, CESifo Group Munich.
- Snower, Dennis J. & Lechthaler, Wolfgang, 2013. "Worker Identity, Employment Fluctuations and Stabilization Policy," IZA Discussion Papers 7413, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Snower, Dennis J., 2013. "Worker Identity, Employment Fluctuations and Stabilization Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 9478, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Sylvérie Herbert, 2014. "Econometric analysis of regime switches and of fiscal multipliers," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2014-01, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
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