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Vieillissement démographique et immigration : un modèle de comptabilité générationnelle appliqué à la France

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  • Xavier Chojnicki

Abstract

The impact of population aging on public finances is a matter of concern to all OECD countries. There have been recent suggestions that immigrationcould dampenthe effects of population aging. In thisarticle, we usegenerational accounting to study the impact ofimmigration onthecentral government's intertemporalfiscalconstraint. We showthat French fiscal policy is unsustainable in the long term and requires a total 11.6% increase in taxes or an overall 13% reduction in transfers. The contribution of migrants is relatively neutral and would not help to restore equilibrium. By contrast, the introduction of a selective policy to raise immigrants'educational attainment could complement traditional economic instruments in coping with population aging.

Suggested Citation

  • Xavier Chojnicki, 2006. "Vieillissement démographique et immigration : un modèle de comptabilité générationnelle appliqué à la France," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(3), pages 39-57.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:ecoldc:ecop_174_0039
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Timothy Miller & Ronald Lee, 2000. "Immigration, Social Security, and Broader Fiscal Impacts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 350-354, May.
    2. Holger Bonin & Bernd Raffelhüschen & Jan Walliser, 2000. "Can Immigration Alleviate the Demographic Burden?," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 57(1), pages 1-21, September.
    3. Robert Haveman, 1994. "Should Generational Accounts Replace Public Budgets and Deficits?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 95-111, Winter.
    4. Carole Bonnet, 2002. "Comptabilité générationnelle appliquée à la France : quelques facteurs d'instabilité des résultats," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 154(3), pages 59-78.
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    1. Xavier Chojnicki & Lionel Ragot, 2016. "Impacts of Immigration on an Ageing Welfare State: An Applied General Equilibrium Model for France," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 37, pages 258-284, June.
    2. Xavier Chojnicki, 2013. "The Fiscal Impact of Immigration in France: A Generational Accounting Approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(8), pages 1065-1090, August.

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