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‘Growth in a Time of Debt’ as an example of the logical-positivist science

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  • Mariusz MAZIARZ

    (Wroclaw University of Economics (Wroclaw, Poland))

Abstract

The paper addresses the question whether the nowinfamous piece of econometric research conducted by Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) that set the threshold hypothesis in the relation between public debt and economic growth was conducted in accordance with the neopositivist doctrine. The article consists of two parts. First, the epistemic advice given by logical positivism is reconstructed and operationalized. Second, the cliometric method employed by Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) is analyzed. The answer to the research question is affirmative. ‘Growth in a Time of Debt’ is a piece of logical-positivist science because (1) the research is data-based and aimed at confirming the results, (2) its authors are committed to the neopositivist theory-observation distinction, (3) its goal is describing an empirical generalization and the result’s interpretations suggest that (4) Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) understand causality in a reductionist way, as a constant conjunction.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariusz MAZIARZ, 2017. "‘Growth in a Time of Debt’ as an example of the logical-positivist science," The Journal of Philosophical Economics, Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, The Journal of Philosophical Economics, vol. 10(2), pages 47-64, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bus:jphile:v:10:y:2017:i:2:n:2
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Robert Goldfarb, 1997. "Now you see it, now you don't: emerging contrary results in economics," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 221-244.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    4. Mariusz Maziarz, 2015. "A review of the Granger-causality fallacy," The Journal of Philosophical Economics, Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, The Journal of Philosophical Economics, vol. 8(2), May.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2012. "Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes since 1800," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 69-86, Summer.
    6. Terence Hutchison, 2000. "On the Methodology of Economics and the Formalist Revolution," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1719.
    7. Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims, 1977. "Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory," Working Papers 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    8. Robert Goldfarb, 1995. "The economist-as-audience needs a methodology of plausible inference," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 201-222.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Reinhart-Rogoff; logical positivism; methodology; causality; economics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B4 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology

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