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Change detection in the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross model

Author

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  • Pap Gyula

    (Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, Hungary)

  • Szabó Tamás T.

    (Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, Hungary)

Abstract

We propose an offline change detection method for the famous Cox–Ingersoll–Ross model based on a continuous sample. We develop one- and two-sided testing procedures for both drift parameters of the process. The test process is based on estimators that are motivated by the discrete time least-squares estimators, and its asymptotic distribution under the no-change hypothesis is that of a Brownian bridge. We prove the asymptotic weak consistence of the test, and derive the asymptotic properties of the change-point estimator under the alternative hypothesis of change at one point in time.

Suggested Citation

  • Pap Gyula & Szabó Tamás T., 2016. "Change detection in the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross model," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 33(1-2), pages 21-40, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:strimo:v:33:y:2016:i:1-2:p:21-40:n:3
    DOI: 10.1515/strm-2015-0008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Matyas Barczy & Mohamed Ben Alaya & Ahmed Kebaier & Gyula Pap, 2016. "Asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimator for the growth rate for a jump-type CIR process based on continuous time observations," Papers 1609.05865, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2017.
    2. Kokoszka, Piotr & Leipus, Remigijus, 1998. "Change-point in the mean of dependent observations," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 385-393, November.
    3. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Gombay, Edit, 2008. "Change detection in autoregressive time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 451-464, March.
    5. Ludger Overbeck, 1998. "Estimation for Continuous Branching Processes," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 25(1), pages 111-126, March.
    6. Overbeck, Ludger & Rydén, Tobias, 1997. "Estimation in the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 430-461, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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