IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/pepspp/v20y2014i4p23n1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Changes in Public Opinion and the Occurrence of International Terrorism

Author

Listed:
  • Malečková Jitka
  • Stanišić Dragana

    (CERGE-EI, a joint workplace of Charles University and the Economics Institute of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Politických vězňů 7, 111 21 Prague, Czech Republic)

Abstract

This paper is a contribution to the study of the impact of public opinion and evolutions in opinion on the occurrence of international terrorism. First, we replicate Krueger and Malečková’s (2009) model of the relationship between attitudes towards world leaders and occurrences of international terrorist incidents, using more recent data-the Gallup Survey data from 2010 on public opinion in Middle Eastern and North African countries and the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) data on international terrorism from 2009 to 2011. The analysis confirms the model of the earlier study, although, due to the distribution of terrorist incidents in the new sample, the evidence of the correlation between terrorist attacks and public opinion weakens. Second, we exercise an out-of-sample prediction of terrorist attacks using the estimated model based on the data from the 2004 to 2008 period to predict the occurrence of attacks in 2009–2011. The findings suggest that Krueger and Malečková’s (2009) model is unstable, either due to the instability of the process or the problematic nature of terrorism data. Further research is necessary to explain and test these results.

Suggested Citation

  • Malečková Jitka & Stanišić Dragana, 2014. "Changes in Public Opinion and the Occurrence of International Terrorism," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 1-23, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:pepspp:v:20:y:2014:i:4:p:23:n:1
    DOI: 10.1515/peps-2014-0021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2014-0021
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/peps-2014-0021?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alberto Abadie, 2006. "Poverty, Political Freedom, and the Roots of Terrorism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 50-56, May.
    2. Alan B. Krueger, 2009. "Attitudes and Action: Public Opinion and the Occurrence of International Terrorism," Working Papers 1100, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    3. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
    4. Caruso, Raul & Schneider, Friedrich, 2013. "Brutality of Jihadist terrorism. A contest theory perspective and empirical evidence in the period 2002–2010," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 685-696.
    5. Alan B. Krueger, 2007. "Introduction to What Makes a Terrorist: Economics and the Roots of Terrorism," Introductory Chapters, in: What Makes a Terrorist: Economics and the Roots of Terrorism, Princeton University Press.
    6. Mark Tessler & Michael D. H. Robbins, 2007. "What Leads Some Ordinary Arab Men and Women to Approve of Terrorist Acts Against the United States?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 51(2), pages 305-328, April.
    7. Alan B. Krueger, 2009. "Attitudes and Action: Public Opinion and the Occurrence of International Terrorism," Working Papers 1100, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    8. Caruso Raul & Klor Esteban F., 2012. "Political Economy Studies on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Introduction," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-10, August.
    9. repec:pri:cepsud:179krueger is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Malečková, Jitka & Stanišić, Dragana, 2011. "Public opinion and terrorist acts," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 107-121.
    2. Martin Gassebner & Simon Luechinger, 2011. "Lock, stock, and barrel: a comprehensive assessment of the determinants of terror," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 235-261, December.
    3. Malečková Jitka & Stanišić Dragana, 2013. "Does Higher Education Decrease Support for Terrorism?," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 343-358, December.
    4. Roland Hodler & Paul Raschky & Anthony Strittmatter, 2018. "Religion and Terrorism: Evidence from Ramadan Fasting," Papers 1810.09869, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    5. Nicola Limodio, 2022. "Terrorism Financing, Recruitment, and Attacks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1711-1742, July.
    6. Delavande, Adeline & Zafar, Basit, 2018. "Information and anti-American attitudes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 1-31.
    7. Hodler, Roland & Raschky, Paul & Strittmatter, Anthony, 2018. "Religiosity and Terrorism: Evidence from Ramadan Fasting," CEPR Discussion Papers 13257, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Jennings, Colin, 2012. "Rationalising ‘Irrational’ Support for Political Violence," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-87, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    9. Dimant, Eugen & Krieger, Tim & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2023. "Paying them to hate US: The effect of U.S. military aid on anti-American terrorism, 1968-2018," Discussion Paper Series 2023-02, University of Freiburg, Wilfried Guth Endowed Chair for Constitutional Political Economy and Competition Policy.
    10. Kirill Zhirkov & Maykel Verkuyten & Jeroen Weesie, 2014. "Perceptions of world politics and support for terrorism among Muslims: Evidence from Muslim countries and Western Europe," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(5), pages 481-501, November.
    11. Limodio, Nicola, 2019. "Terrorism Financing, Recruitment and Attacks: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Working Papers 287, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    12. Opoku-Agyemang, Kweku A., 2017. "Narcissism Over Ideology: Revealed versus Stated Terrorist Preferences," SocArXiv 5fj2x, Center for Open Science.
    13. Friedrich Schneider & Tilman Brück & Daniel Meierrieks, 2015. "The Economics Of Counterterrorism: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 131-157, February.
    14. Andrew E. Clark & Elena Stancanelli, 2016. "Individual Well-Being and the Allocation of Time Before and After the Boston Marathon Terrorist Bombing," PSE Working Papers hal-01302843, HAL.
    15. Mohamed Abdel Jelil & Kartika Bhatia & Anne Brockmeyer & Quy-Toan Do & CleÌ ment Joubert, 2018. "Unemployment and Violent Extremism: Evidence from Daesh Foreign Recruits," HiCN Working Papers 273, Households in Conflict Network.
    16. Pınar Derin-Güre, 2014. "Development, immigration and terrorism," Chapters, in: Robert E.B. Lucas (ed.), International Handbook on Migration and Economic Development, chapter 15, pages 425-462, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Delavande, Adeline & Zafar, Basit, 2015. "Stereotypes and Madrassas: Experimental evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 247-267.
    18. Goel Rajeev K., 2020. "Do Weak Institutions Affect Recording of Terror Incidents? Evidence from the United States," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 26(1), pages 1-11, February.
    19. Friedrich Schneider & Tilman Brück & Daniel Meierrieks, 2010. "The Economics of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: A Survey (Part II)," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1050, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    20. Sarah Brockhoff & Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2012. "Looking Back on Anger: Explaining the Social Origins of Left-Wing and Nationalist-Separatist Terrorism in Western Europe, 1970-2007," CESifo Working Paper Series 3789, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:pepspp:v:20:y:2014:i:4:p:23:n:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.