Long-Term Fundamentals of the 2008 Economic Crisis
AbstractThe current economic crisis has long-term causes that are rooted in the economic dynamics of globalization. I argue that globalization (a) increases the world economic growth rate; (b) is consistent with development, underdevelopment and miracle growth; (c) increases inequality in leading countries; and (d) generates a transition path along which the interest rate diminishes if capital accumulates at a faster rate than technological change. This condition is generated by cheap-factor-seeking foreign direct investment (FDI), which by combining advanced technologies with low costs yields extraordinary profits and experiences lower incentives for innovation. Over the period 1980-2007, liberalization unleashed a wave of globalization, and the international sector experienced miracle growth. Profits rose to all time highs and global saving exceeded global investment. This savings glut or investment shortfall fueled a global housing appreciation, after which excessive risk in a deregulated financial market led to a financial meltdown. While restoring financial markets and reducing the housing market fallout have been immediate priorities for the U.S., economic growth can only be recovered by restoring global investment. Lowering interest rates cannot generate very much investment, nor will consumption flows from fiscal spending. To stimulate the global economy, whole new economic sectors and technologies must be developed in advanced countries, and economic development deepened in underdeveloped countries. At the same time, a global harmonization of corporate taxes, ending the corporate tax haven loophole, would raise funds for publicly provided goods that complement private investment and balance incentives between local and international production. It would also reduce the polarization between developed and underdeveloped countries, balance global markets with global governance, and strengthen global cooperation.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by De Gruyter in its journal Global Economy Journal.
Volume (Year): 9 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (January)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.degruyter.com
Other versions of this item:
- David Mayer-Foulkes, 2009. "Long-Term Fundamentals of the 2008 Economic Crisis," Documentos de Trabajo DTE 467, CIDE, Division de Economia.
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
- E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- David Mayer-Foulkes, 2012. "FDI, Polarized Globalization, and the Current Crisis," DEGIT Conference Papers c017_052, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
- Roe, Terry L. & Shane, Mathew & Heerman, Kari, 2011. "Macroeconomic Imbalances in the World Economy," Working Papers 109244, University of Minnesota, Center for International Food and Agricultural Policy.
- Naude, Wim, 2009. "The Global Economic Crisis after One Year: Is a New Paradigm for Recovery in Developing Countries Emerging?," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER UNU Policy Brie, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Giancarlo Bertocco, 2011. "Global Saving Glut and housing bubble: a critical analysis," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf1112, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
- David Mayer-Foulkes, 2011. "A Causal Panorama of Cross-Country Human Development," DEGIT Conference Papers c016_049, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Golla).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.