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The significance filter, the winner's curse and the need to shrink

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  • Erik W. van Zwet
  • Eric A. Cator

Abstract

The “significance filter” refers to focusing exclusively on statistically significant results. Since frequentist properties such as unbiasedness and coverage are valid only before the data have been observed, there are no guarantees if we condition on significance. In fact, the significance filter leads to overestimation of the magnitude of the parameter, which has been called the “winner's curse.” It can also lead to undercoverage of the confidence interval. Moreover, these problems become more severe if the power is low. These issues clearly deserve our attention. They have been studied mostly through empirical observation and simulation, while there are relatively few mathematical results. Here we study them both from the frequentist and the Bayesian perspective. We prove that the relative bias of the magnitude is a decreasing function of the power and that the usual confidence interval undercovers when the power is less than 50%. We conclude that it is important to apply the appropriate amount of shrinkage to counter the winner's curse.

Suggested Citation

  • Erik W. van Zwet & Eric A. Cator, 2021. "The significance filter, the winner's curse and the need to shrink," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 75(4), pages 437-452, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:stanee:v:75:y:2021:i:4:p:437-452
    DOI: 10.1111/stan.12241
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    References listed on IDEAS

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      • Daniel Benjamin & James Berger & Magnus Johannesson & Brian Nosek & E. Wagenmakers & Richard Berk & Kenneth Bollen & Bjorn Brembs & Lawrence Brown & Colin Camerer & David Cesarini & Christopher Chambe, 2017. "Redefine Statistical Significance," Artefactual Field Experiments 00612, The Field Experiments Website.
    4. Blakeley B. McShane & David Gal & Andrew Gelman & Christian Robert & Jennifer L. Tackett, 2019. "Abandon Statistical Significance," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 73(S1), pages 235-245, March.
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    4. Sander Greenland, 2023. "Divergence versus decision P‐values: A distinction worth making in theory and keeping in practice: Or, how divergence P‐values measure evidence even when decision P‐values do not," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 50(1), pages 54-88, March.

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