Appraisal-Based Real Estate Returns under Alternative Market Regimes
AbstractIn this article we use Monte Carlo simulation to study the statistical properties of real estate returns. We set up a model where transactions prices are noisy signals of true prices. We then consider a number of appraisal rules, derived from Bayesian and non-Bayesian theory, to estimate the current true price and rate of return. The class of exponential smoothing and Kalman filter rules perform well at both the disaggregate (returns on an individual property) and aggregate (returns on a real property portfolio) levels. A special case of exponential smoothing (α= 1.0) places all weight on current market data. Since this case eliminates smoothing, our results suggest that appraisers should place all weight on current data (no weight on past data) provided that they want to estimate returns rather than values. However, these results should be used with caution if sales prices are very noisy. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association in its journal Real Estate Economics.
Volume (Year): 20 (1992)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, 1309 East Tenth Street, Suite 738, Bloomington, Indiana 47405
Phone: (812) 855-7794
Fax: (812) 855-8679
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1080-8620
More information through EDIRC
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Robert Edelstein & Daniel Quan, 2006. "How Does Appraisal Smoothing Bias Real Estate Returns Measurement?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 41-60, February.
- Wilson, Patrick James & Okunev, John & Webb, James J, 1998. "Step Interventions and Market Integration: Tests in the U.S., U.K., and Australian Property Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 91-123, January.
- Shaun A. Bond & Soosung Hwang & Gianluca Marcato, 2006. "An Analysis of Commercial Real Estate Returns: Is there a Smoothing Puzzle?," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2006-17, Henley Business School, Reading University.
- Arjun Chatrath & Youguo Liang, 1998. "REITs and Inflation: A Long-Run Perspective," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 16(3), pages 311-326.
- Sampagnaro, Gabriele & Battaglia, Francesca, 2010. "Reliability and Heterogeneity of Real Estate Indexes and their Impact on the Predictability of Returns," MPRA Paper 23378, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jeff Fisher & David Geltner & Henry Pollakowski, 2007. "A Quarterly Transactions-based Index of Institutional Real Estate Investment Performance and Movements in Supply and Demand," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 5-33, January.
- Elizabeth Yobaccio & Jack H. Rubens & David C. Ketcham, 1995. "The Inflation-Hedging Properties of Risk Assets: The Case of REITs," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 10(3), pages 279-296.
- Gerald R. Brown & Seow-Eng Ong, 2001. "Estimating serial cross-correlation in real estate returns," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(7), pages 381-387.
- Jack H. Rubens & David A. Louton & Elizabeth J. Yobaccio, 1998. "Measuring the Significance of Diversification Gains," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 16(1), pages 73-86.
- Hany Guirguis & Christos Giannikos & Randy Anderson, 2004. "The US Housing Market: Asset Pricing Forecasts Using Time Varying Coefficients," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 33-53, October.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.