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Subnational Non‐Hispanic White Natural Decrease in the United States

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  • Kenneth M. Johnson

Abstract

This research is the first to examine the prevalence and dynamics of non‐Hispanic white natural decrease in fine scale subregional units of the United States. In 2015, more non‐Hispanic Whites died than were born in 65 percent of the US counties. This is the highest incidence of non‐Hispanic white natural decrease ever reported. It results from a complex interaction among fertility, mortality, and migration over a protracted period. Spatial regression is used to identify three critical variables (over‐65 population, child–women ratio, and women of childbearing age) that are the immediate demographic causes of this natural decrease. The timely, factual information in this paper provides a demographic context for analysis of the social, political, and policy implications of this emergent demographic phenomenon.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth M. Johnson, 2020. "Subnational Non‐Hispanic White Natural Decrease in the United States," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 46(1), pages 7-31, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:46:y:2020:i:1:p:7-31
    DOI: 10.1111/padr.12323
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Calvin Beale, 1969. "Natural decrease of population: The current and prospective status of an emergent American phenomenon," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 6(2), pages 91-99, May.
    2. Kenneth M. Johnson & Layton M. Field & Dudley L. Poston Jr., 2015. "More Deaths Than Births: Subnational Natural Decrease in Europe and the United States," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 41(4), pages 651-680, December.
    3. Calvin Beale, 1964. "Rural depopulation in the united states: Some demographic consequences of agricultural adjustments," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 1(1), pages 264-272, March.
    4. Anne Case & Angua Deaton, 2015. "Rising morbidity and mortality in midlife among white non-Hispanic Americans in the 21st century," Working Papers 15078.full.pdf, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies..
    5. H. Chang, 1974. "Natural population decrease in Iowa counties," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 11(4), pages 657-672, November.
    6. Anselin, Luc, 2002. "Under the hood : Issues in the specification and interpretation of spatial regression models," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 247-267, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel T. Lichter & Kenneth M. Johnson, 2020. "A Demographic Lifeline? Immigration and Hispanic Population Growth in Rural America," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 39(5), pages 785-803, October.

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